Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 2- (1) CRUZ IN THE CASTLE
Race 1: (2) AUBURN MILL is taking a drop in class to the claiming level after trying allowance company in his last two. He comes off of a career-best speed figure and looks to have some early speed to offer to the race. (1) OFFICER UNBRIDLED would not be surprising to see win here, but 3-5 is entirely too short to take on him. He is only 1-for-12 lifetime and comes out of an uninspiring race against allowance foes. Much more upside with AUBURN MILL who is lighter raced and has a career-best Beyer that’s seven points higher. (5) MR. SNAP is best of the rest in the short field and is one to watch on debut for the new barn.
Picks: 2-1-5
Race 2: (1) CRUZ IN THE CASTLE is coming off of a career high speed figure last time out in his first try against claimers since breaking the maiden. She’s back in for the claiming tag again tonight and, if she runs a speed figure as good as last time out, her competition would need to improve 20 points or more to have a chance. If she breaks cleanly, she should go right to the lead and never look back. (3) DIAMOND TRAIN has been knocking on the door since stretching out to 6.5 furlongs two starts ago. Expect her to be rolling late to pick up the pieces in this race. (6) BELLA FEMMINA should some early speed on the stretch out to 7 furlongs again. While she moves up in class based on the claiming price, this field doesn’t seem particularly tougher than what she faced last time out.
Picks: 1-3-6
Race 3: (4) RUN FAR enters a new barn after beginning his career at the Fair Grounds. He’s put in some okay races over 8.5 furlongs in New Orleans recently, but he did seem to weaken late in both races. The turnback to 7 furlongs here should be appreciated by this colt, who makes his first start for the Christopher Keller barn that is hitting at 22% with first-time starters for the stable. (1) POLITICAL DECISION had no response at all on debut, but the horse continues to show a nice work tab and deserves one more chance here. Javier Contreras is hitting at 14% with second-time maiden starters. (2) MALIBU CIRCLE was close to the pace last time out when stretching out to two turns and should be right in the mix again in a race that again features several of his rivals from that race.
Picks: 4-1-2
Race 4: (2) STRONG LIKE BULL, (4) SLEEPING GIANT, and (5) THAT’S HISTORY are all three exiting a recent common race in which they finished 1-2-3 and that’s likely what happens here again. STRONG LIKE BULL won that battle and should win this one as well. He proved in the common race that he is simply faster than this group. THAT’S HISTORY tried to go with him early, but STRONG LIKE BULL was just way too much as he powered away for a five length score. SLEEPING GIANT sat off the early pace and was able to get up for second late. Expect a similar race this time out, although the nod for second will go to THAT’S HISTORY this time around.
Picks: 2-5-4
Race 5: (4) DAZZLE ME is taking a significant step up in class, but if she can handle it, she is a serious win contender. Last time out, she settled early some five lengths off the early before rolling home late to win going away impressively. Those tactics will need to be employed again in here as there is tons of early speed here. (5) STOWE ANGEL has run her best races while left alone on the early lead. She definitely won’t have that easy of a time tonight as there is lots of other early speed signed on. She will still probably make the lead, but it could make her vulnerable late if the early fractions are hot. (2) MALIBU SPLASH has some very nice class and should be within range of the early pace if good enough.
Picks: 4-5-2
Race 6: (2) BRIGINTINE ISLAND figures to get to the lead and keep going on the front end as she did in her most recent start. She’ll see a familiar foe from that race in (5) POWER FORWARD. The latter will likely be relegated to the chasers role once again tonight. On paper, these two appear to be much the best over the rest of the competition. (4) DUBAI WAS LIT has some strong class and should appreciate the turnback in distance from her last start. We’ll see if she can’t pick up the pieces for third.
Picks: 2-5-4
Race 7: (5) SEE YA MANANA is coming out of a really strong effort in a stakes race and is the one to beat on paper. She comes off of a layoff, but trainer Jeff Runco is hitting at 23% in similar spots. (6) SHERWOOD LADY figures to be close to the early lead and should be within range turning for home. However, she has been a beaten favorite in her last two. (1) LETTS GO TO DIXIES is likely to be the early speed on the stretch out from 4.5 furlong races. Last time she ran 7 furlongs, she led the field wire-to-wire. While she won’t have it that easy this time, she is certainly capable of picking up a piece.
Picks: 5-6-1
Race 8: Let’s take a chance with a first-time starter, (7) BLUE COLLAR BOY, in this absolutely wide open maiden event. He shows a good work tab in preparation for the debut, including a solid bullet work a few weeks ago. He starts for top conditioner Timmy 2Grams, who is hitting at 33% with first-time starters on a decent sample size (5-for-15). (2) IN THE GOSPEL jumps back up to MSW company after he just missed last time out. He comes off of a career best effort and has the most experience of anyone in the field, having already started 13 times in his career. Maybe tonight is the night? (9) CHOCO ROCO disappointed last time out as the favorite, but his debut in the start prior was very encouraging. If he can take another step forward today, he should be in contention late.
Picks: 7-2-9
