I’m excited to be covering the short, but sweet Kentucky Downs meet In the Money Media this year. My style for public handicapping is to give the usual 1-2-3-4 picks as a courtesy, but primarily would encourage the reader to digest my opinions via the written analysis on my strongest opinions as well as #TheCheatSheet which is available at the bottom of this post. That is a snapshot that groups participants into tiers and then grades myself on how easy it is to make money in the race in the event my opinion is correct. Good Luck!
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 1: 11-7-8-1
- Race 2: 8-6-7-2
- Race 3: 9-2-7-12
- Race 4: 1-5-3-10
- Race 5: 9-8-1-10
- Race 6: 2-3-8-4
- Race 7: 6-8-11-1
- Race 8: 5-7-8=12
- Race 9: 6-7-1-2
- Race 10: 3-8-10-7
- Race 11: 1-5-12-8
Kentucky Downs Race 2: Purse Thief (#8) at 6-1 or higher
This rare allowance race for juveniles attracted the smallest field of the day with only nine runners signed on. That’s often the largest field of the day at most tracks! A few of these have yet to break their maiden, but opted to try the larger purse against similar company. Of those without a win Tiztastic (#6) interests me most. This Asmussen trainee debuted on dirt at Saratoga, but might appreciate this surface switch. He’s by freshman sire Tiz the Law whose progeny are 2/30 on dirt but 4/15 on turf. He’s also been training well on the grass and is owned by a powerful ownership group that includes both the Coolmore group and Kentucky Downs owner/operator Ron Winchell. The favorite might be Blue Coast (#7) who comes off a win at Ellis last out, but he was allowed to control on the front end and this could be a tougher spot. My top pick is Purse Thief (#8) who also switches to grass for the first time. This colt is by a less renowned freshman sire in Caracaro, but he’s got off to a fast start at stud with 5/14 runners winning. His dam was unraced but has produced Play the Music who is a G3 winner over the same 6.5f on turf that this field faces today. Kelsey Danner has been known to strike with a price at this meet showing a healthy flat bet profit (4/22 18%, $3.47 ROI). The barn also has awesome numbers with this move. When swtiching juveniles from dirt to turf she’s 5/18 (28%, $3.50 ROI).
Kentucky Downs Race 10: Siege of Boston (#3) at 4-1 or higher
The Tapit stakes features a very competitive group where a case can be made for just about every runner in the race. That’s part of the reason I wouldn’t want to take too short of a price in this spot. Chasing the Crown (#10) now inherits the role as the favorite after the scratch of Funtastic Again, but doesn’t possess a huge edge over this group. I like a couple horses with experience over this Kentucky Downs strip. That’s the case for Harlan Estate (#8) who won this event last year at 37-1. He’s coming into this event in arguably better form than last year as he was a solid second in a salty allowance at Saratoga last out. My top pick is Siege of Boston (#3) who has been knocking at the door at this level for some time now. He’s consistently running figures that are fast enough to win a race like this and I believe today is the day he gets it done. My enthusiasm is bolstered by the fact he ran a very admirable race over this course last year finishing second when getting no pace to close into. He fits the conditions of the race like a glove as its restricted to horses without a stakes win this year and he’s racked up four in the money finishes in those races from five 2024 starts.
Kentucky Downs Race 11: Clock Tower (#1) at 8-5 or higher
The nightcap is a one mile race for juveniles which is at this track is a demanding distance to try and win first out. Of the debut runners in this spot the only one that somewhat interests me is Chapman’s Peak (#12) who goes out for the potent Brad Cox operation. The Cox barn is the only one in the race with even decent numbers with juveniles routing on turf for their debuts and his barn’s are quite impressive with a record of 23/105 (22%, $2.13 ROI). This Godolphin colt is regally bred by Quality Road (14% 2YO FTS) out of G1W Dickinson making him a full brother to stakes winning Wadsworth for these same connections. Jockey Florent Geroux will have to work out a trip from this outside post and there are some runners with experience that will prove formidable. I have some interest in Tariff (#5) who shows up in this spot as part of Peter Eurton’s new Kentucky string. He debuted in a turf sprint at Ellis and that proved a bit too sharp for him. I think he’ll appreciate the extended distance and can lean on some racing experience. My top pick in this spot is Clock Tower (#1) who certainly should have the necessary foundation to handle this trip exiting a one mile dirt race at Saratoga. He was defeated by a runaway winner in that spot but ran on gamely to finish second well-clear of the rest of the field. His workout since that race has received positive reviews and I think he can lean on that experience to get the job done.
#TheCheatSheet
Meet Statistics
Coming Soon!
