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Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner

BEST BET: 8-Case Hit (Race 7)

Race #1: Selections: 5-2-7

A debut maiden winner over this course, 5-Scatify returns to dirt off a fourth-place five-furlong turf try at Del Mar. The Mullins-trained colt earned a strong (85) dirt Beyer two-back at Santa Anita, going longer, and should prove tough if able to replicate that big number. 2-Self Sufficient was no match for race winner Captain Sparrow on July 26, but held second in a solid effort and now goes first off the claim for conditioner Andy Mathis. Although the sample is small, this jockey-trainer combo has a pair of wins and a third with new dirt sprint acquisitions from three tries. The lightly raced 7-Our Consigliere was a runaway seven-length maiden claiming debut winner over this layout back in July and didn’t run all that badly when facing winners in start number two.

Race #2: Selections: 7-5-3

7-Smokin Hot Chick broke slowly from the rail in her debut, losing all realistic chance. The Smokem filly, who adds blinkers, moves outside and drops in for a first-time tag under trainer Jorge Periban, and is likely to show more this afternoon. 5-Sheer Lightning flashed improved speed in start number two and now drops from $50k to $20,000 maiden claimers in career try number three. The juvenile daughter of Stanford may prove quickest off the blocks this afternoon and be tough to reel in late. 3-Donde Esta Jefe was trounced by double digits in her Aug. 10 unveiling for team O’Neill, but drops in for a tag in career try number two and has done most of her training over this course. Improvement is likely for a barn that sent out all live runners last weekend.

Race #3: Selections: 3-4-8

Dirt to turf 3-Buzz the Tower flashed speed in both grass five-furlong tries against stiffer MDSW competition over at Del Mar to start her career, and now drops in for a tag in start number three. 4-Eastwick moves back to dirt on the turnback while making her second start off the Craig Dollase claim. The daughter of Ghostzapper adds blinkers this afternoon, and finished a solid second two-back when last trying dirt, earning a field’s best (62) main track Beyer. 8-Going Great Guns was overmatched when trying turf against MDSW types in start number two on Aug. 24, but now returns to dirt and drops in for a career-low tag for trainer Sean McCarthy. Today’s third career try is typically a runner’s best.

Race #4: Selections: 8-2-3

Reddam Racing’s 8-Z’s Wardrobe gets some class relief today, returning to dirt, and has a late-closing running style that should bode well against this reduced level on this racetrack. The filly’s lone try over this course was in the Soviet Problem S. in December of 2024, so it isn’t a realistic gauge of how she’ll handle the course. Turf to dirt 2-Little Silver Girl finished second when last trying this $12,500 level three back and is likely to bounce back off a pair of subpar efforts against better. 3-Diamond Daze adds blinkers and drops in for a tag for her first main track try after finishing far behind in a pair of MDSW turf routes at Del Mar.

Race #5: Selections: 7-5-4

The speedy 7-Charmed Dream has tired badly in her last pair of dirt tries at Del Mar, but removes the blinkers today, takes a sizable class drop, and shortens up to 5 ½ furlongs. The 3-year-old daughter of Idiot Proof was a gate-to-wire maiden winner over this course three back. She should prove tough to reel in. 5-Devine Marina was trounced when trying to route and facing winners on Aug. 14 at Del Mar, but should bounce back on the turnback and returning to the Los Al afternoon layout. 4-Lady Lithesome (by Sir Prancealot) makes her first main track try today for the new barn while making her third start off a long layoff. The 4-year-old filly drops in for a career-low claiming tag today but may have too much ground to make up late. Kimura sticks.

Race #6: Selections: 2-4-6

The locally based 2-Big Coin was overmatched in both sprint tries (dirt and turf) at Del Mar in her first two starts against Maiden Special Weight competition, but merits a strong look on the class drop in a weak lineup. 4-If Not for Cas exits a pair of wide trip fourths to start her career for conditioner Ed Freeeman, and should improve today, making the all-important third lifetime try. 6-Donal’s Homily is by Rousing Sermon, who gets 13% with his debut juvenile prodigy. This juvenile filly need not be much to compete at this level, but conditioner Gary Stute is 0 for 14 with firsters the past five years.

Race #7: Selections: 8-5-1

8-Case Hit has finished first or second in all five career efforts for Miller, and exits a well-timed grass sprint score at Del Mar on Sept. 5. The 3-year-old gelded son of Frosted is proven on dirt as well and figures to get another favorable upfront pressing trip. He switches to Kimura this afternoon, who has run well for this outfit over this course. 5-Otro Mas is a multiple winner over the track and distance and is reunited with his winning pilot this afternoon. 1-Last Call Zondo has good speed from the rail and responded sharply on the class drop in his most recent six-furlong Del Mar score on Aug. 31. This sophomore gelding broke his maiden over this layout on debut and gets the hot hand of jockey Edgar Payeras.

Race #8: Selections 8-3-1

Class dropping 8-Tamarando Star is unproven over this course but sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (70) off a sharp second at 42-1 on Aug. 28. The gelding Brother Tony exited that same event and came back to win on Sept. 14 with a (73) Beyer. The son of Unified makes his second try off the bench today and is dangerous with any normal forward progression. A multiple winner over this course and distance, 3-Devilinthebluegras drops into a softer spot after back-to-back double-digit length defeats at Del Mar. The 4-year-old gelding was a winner here three back and is a solid rebound candidate. Blinkers off 1-Bad to the Bones was beaten by double digits in the last pair, but drops in for a career-low claiming tag for conditioner Ryan Hanson and is eligible to spring to life at this reduced level.

Race #9: Selections 8-1-4

8-Bronko Nagurski had his three-race win streak snapped on Aug. 10 at Del Mar when encountering a troubled journey, but returns to Los Al, where he was a solid winner two back for trainer Jeff Mullins. Horse for Course 1-Howbeit has been freshened since game win over the local venue on July 6, when claimed by a new outfit, returns protected, and loves this 5 ½-furlong trip. The veteran 8-year-old is a 14-time career winner and looks well-spotted off the 10-week break. However, the top choice defeated him on both May 31 and June 27. 4-Distant Fleet has solid speed and exits a game win over this course last week. The Stay Thirsty 3-year-old goes first off the claim for low-profile trainer Jose Valdez off that winning effort.