Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – 6/15/25 – By Eric Solomon

There’s an 11 race, Sunday afternoon card to close out the week of racing at Monmouth Park. Two of the six races carded for the turf yesterday were taken off the turf due to some rain that fell throughout the afternoon. The forecast isn’t great today, so I’ll handicap the six grass races for both surfaces. Friday racing resumes this week with a 2:00 first post on 6/20. First post today is set for 12:50 (ET). 

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

One more note: In the Picks Grid, when there are multiple choices in a column, the numbers are now listed in order of preference as opposed to numerical order. 

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

Much like yesterday, all of the odd-numbered races are carded for the turf today. We’ll start off with a $40K-$30K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles out of the chute. The rails are set at 24 feet for this card today. The two principal horses for me in this race are We Live This Game (#2) and Not a Dime Back (#4). I’ll try Not a Dime Back on top in this spot, making his first start on the turf for John Servis. This one debuted against a tough field on synthetic at Gulfstream before running three solid runner-up efforts on the dirt there and at Parx. The dam was sired by Kitten’s Joy and Audible gets 10% winners with turf routers. The dam hasn’t produced much with her four other runners to make it to the track, but this one looks talented enough to win at a level like this, assuming that he takes to the turf. We Live This Game has a few solid efforts on the grass already. He was gelded since his last race, and now he’s making his second start off the layoff for Anthony Margotta Jr. Samuel Marin has a chance to close the gap in the jockey standings this weekend with Paco Lopez not riding here this weekend. On deeper tickets I’ll include Genuine Gomo (#3) for Todd Pletcher. He was a $350K purchase, but after finishing 5th in two starts with state bred maiden special weight types at Gulfstream, it appears that this horse is going to be a claimer. He ran well with $35K maiden claiming company at Gulfstream in his most recent start back in the middle of April. Pletcher has not had a large presence at this meet up to this point, but I do think his name will command some money. As a result, the value may not be up to par with this one. 

On the dirt, the top two picks will stay the same, but I’ll switch We Live This Game on top. That was has a little more speed than Not a Dime Back, and that seemed to be a valuable asset in the dirt races yesterday, especially as the track condition was deteriorating. He needed that last race where he was a little keen. I think both Good as He Gets (#10) and Atrocious (#11) should be gunning for the lead from the outside posts. That should all We Live This Game to sit a sweet pocket trip. Good as He Gets is one to upgrade on the main track. His lone turf effort at Laurel at two turns was solid, so I do think his one turn dirt form can translate to two turns on the dirt. 

Race 2:

Beaten $12,500-$10,500 claimers will go six furlongs in this race, which will start the first of three Pick-4 wagers on the card. All seven runners entered in this spot qualified under the N2L condition. Gunnery Sergeant (#2) ran a credible race at this condition last out, finishing 5th, beaten a little more than four lengths. He was a winner in a slow $109K maiden claiming race two starts ago. He’s making his third start off the layoff and his third on the dirt. I think he has more upside than most in this race where several of the runners don’t seem to remember how to win. Go Yoshida (#3) makes his first start against winners a week removed from breaking his maiden here. Like the top pick, he’s slated to make his third start at this meet. Reynaldo Yanez has good numbers with runners first off the claim, but he is 0-6 running back in a week or less. His maiden score last Sunday was really good, so I do think he could be overbet in this race. King Freud (#7) is the runner with more experience that feels like has the best shot to win. He goes turf to dirt for Rudy Rodriguez in this spot. He’s dropping class while shipping in from New York. He’s probably a little better on the turf, but he’s capable of running a winning race on dirt at this level.  

Race 3:

This race is a $30K starter allowance race for three year olds and up going one mile on the turf. The only qualifier for this race is that a horse has to have started at least one time in its career for a $30K claiming tag or less. As a result, this is probably one of, if not, the most competitive race on the card. He’s Got Swagger (#2) is the pick for me in this race. He’s getting back on the turf after a pair of efforts on sealed and sloppy courses. Those races weren’t terrible efforts, but I do think he’ll appreciate the surface switch. He’s 0-8 on the grass with 4 in the money finishes, however, most of those races came against some sharp field at better tracks. He’s making his third start off the layoff and should be in position to move forward. This is another good spot for Magical Marriage (#7) who moves back into protected company after coming from off the pace to score with $22K-$18K claimers here last month. That was his first win since early in 2024, so while getting some class relief, he may be racing back into his better form. Samuel Marin rode him flawlessly last out and he gets the return assignment today. It Can Be Done (#1) is a front running threat to wire this field today, He was excellent in his two starts at this distance last season, winning them both. He tried the Presious Passion Stakes at 12 furlongs and came up empty in that race. He wasn’t as sharp in his three starts at Tampa this winter and spring, but a return to the Jersey Shore could be a quick remedy.

While He’s Got Swagger has run two solid races in his last two on the slop, I prefer It Can Be Done (#1) on the main track here. I think his rail draw allows him to get to the front and that was a good place to be yesterday. I don’t think there’s going to be a serious pace threat to him, and while he’s never competed on a wet track, his dirt efforts have been solid. I’ll back up with He’s Got Swagger and Antigravity (#11). The latter is one of two MTO runners in this race. His last win came on this course last year, and it does feel like he’s losing a step. He will be getting some form of class relief if he’s racing here. He scratched out of the Salvator Mile in favor of maybe drawing into this race. After watching Bishops Bay decimate that field, that was likely the right decision, regardless of the outcome here. 

Race 4:

Seven are entered in an interesting optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance sprint going six furlongs. After starting at two turns in all six career starts, Riyadh Moon (#6), ran an excellent race, closing into a fast pace to easily win over a sealed and sloppy course here two weeks ago. He was making his first start since December that day and he’s now gone on to win two straight races. Derek Ryan’s horses usually improve in their second starts off the layoff and I don’t think this is a particularly strong field for this condition. I think he’s a good fit with this field today. I liked the way Axel Concepcion was riding here yesterday. He showed a lot of patience with Finkle on the turf, and I loved how he handled both Talklessworkmore and Bracket Buster, earning smart, front-running victories with both yesterday. He gets the assignment on Meet Me At Mundi’s (#2) in this race, who is coming off a second place finish in a nice starter allowance race here last month. He has run well on the lead, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Concepcion tries to get to the rail ahead of the three year old, Enduring Spirit (#1) to his inside. I think he’s the main danger to the top pick. 

Race 5:

New Jersey breds will sprint 5 1.2 furlongs in a maiden special weight carded for the turf. If this race goes on the turf, I’ll try a price and go with Frankie G (#7). There’s not a lot of early speed in this race, and that is pretty much his game. His turf sprint at this level last summer wasn’t bad. Russell Cash can pop with a bomb from time to time and this is the kind of runner that could be that kind of horse. I Can Explain (#9) is a runner that improved when getting on the turf last time out, but he fell apart late when going one mile. The cutback in distance could be the answer for him in this turf sprint. I don’t love post nine at this distance, but I see him as a horse that could move forward in this race. Navesink Pirate (#4) makes his third start off the layoff and his first on the turf for Eddie Owens. His synthetic effort at Gulfstream with $25K maiden claimers wasn’t terrible. Most of the runners that Owens has sent out at this meet have been live. I don’t love him at 3-1, but I respect the connections and the pedigree enough to use him in this spot. 

On the dirt Navesink Pirate feels like the one to beat. He was second when facing a large field on dirt at this level last out. He feels like a horse that could get to the front and keep finding with these. Don’t completely discount U Dirty Dog (#10). He’s on the AE list on the turf, but he’d be able to run if this race goes to the dirt. He was wiped out at the break in a large field in what was likely the deepest state bred maiden special weight race of the meet last year. He’s been on the sidelines since then and now makes his first start as a three year old for Chuck Spina. He might be better next time, but he’s worth using in this spot, especially if he looks like he’s on his toes in the paddock.

Race 6:

There’s a $13K carryover in the Jersey-Shore Pick-6, which is a jackpot wager that begins with this $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race. There’s an interesting trainer move with Jades Jay (#2) in this race. He moves into the Ernesto Padilla-Preciado barn for this race. Padilla-Preciado was winning at a 28% clip from June through November of 2024, but he has not listed as the trainer of record of a horse since November 9th. He had his first runner yesterday when Lovely Ride finished 4th in a race taken off the turf. While I’m sure there’s more than meets the eye with this situation, I do think this runner is interesting here on the stretch out. He’s at his best when he’s setting the pace and I don’t think there’s really anyone that can beat him to the lead going into the first turn. Samy Camacho could very easily be able to slow things down up front. Whether or not he has enough stamina left in the tank when they turn for home remains to be seen. However, when looking at Padilla-Preciado’s numbers with new acquisitions and runners going from sprints to routes, I think he’s worth a shot at long odds in this one. Midnight Onyx (#8) is the one that will likely be applying token pressure on the top pick in the early stages of this one. He was one length behind the winner when he was a voided claim at this level last month. His recent form is better than most in this spot. Braggadocious (#1) is another runner that is worth using in this race. With the exception of a disastrous effort at Tampa three back, he’s been running strong races at this condition. He’s never been on a wet track before, but he does have the best Tomlinson Figures in the field, should that come into play today.

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will go one mile in this beaten $40K-$30K claiming race, carded for the turf. Tower Twenty (#5) is the lone two-time winner in the body of this field on the turf. Tres Aires (#11) is the lone MTO runner and the lone three-time winner in this field. Everyone else qualified for this race under the N2L condition. I thought the effort from Blame the Banker (#1) at this distance when facing a much tougher N1X field was really good. She broke out from post 11, nearly going to the outer rail before coming back and rejoining the pack. She was very keen and bullied her way to the front while splitting rivals going into the first turn. She was able to slow the pace down and then was very game while fading to 5th, beaten only two lengths when going off at 51-1. She was a winner in a turf sprint a week before when facing $16K maiden claimers here. She clearly likes the turf and the rail post should work well for her front-running style. She is the one to beat. The backup for me in this race is Youmakemecharlie (#3). I liked the effort when sprinting at this level two back. She tired late and finished last of ten two starts back when trying this two turn mile on the turf for the first time. I do think with added reps for fitness, the mile on grass will be within her range. She gets class relief and she should be able to rate kindly in this spot.

On the dirt, the two multiple winners are the ones that interest me the most. Tower Twenty Two (#5) does nothing for me on the turf, but I think she’s very dangerous on the drop in class on dirt. She was a winner the last time she was entered in a straight claiming race, which came on a sloppy and sealed course at Parx. She tried this distance against better two back and finished 4th, but her speed figure came back competitive for this level. I think she’ll be forwardly placed and I think the class relief she’ll be getting will be a huge advantage for her. Tres Aires (#11) is worth using as a backup. She had a three race winning streak snapped when losing by a neck at Laurel when going seven furlongs last out. The speed figures are starting to catch up, but more importantly to me, she’s learning how to be a winner. These are the kinds of horses that Claudio Gonzalez has had success here with in the past. She might be a bit pace compromised in here, but I think she’s clearly second best on paper on the dirt. 

Race 8:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a state bred optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. This is a wide open race where it looks like some of the more talented runners may be losing a step. If you believe the last effort from Cara Blance (#4), then I think you have to consider her here. She showed absolutely nothing as a two year old, but that isn’t terribly uncommon for Chuck Spina’s horses. She came back when running with a waiver in an open $25K-$20K maiden claiming race here in May, and she was dead game, prevailing as the longest shot on the board in a field of six. If she can build off that race, she’s going to be tough at this level. The dam was a talented mare who was a multiple stakes winner on this oval. She has produced a few other useful runners, so I can see this filly running well again. Cathal Lynch sends out Gravity Hill (#10) for her four year old debut. She was sharp in her first two starts last year, but she was just meh in her other four. Lynch hit the reset button with her and he’ll try again off the layoff. I do think sprinting on the dirt is what she is going to do best. I would have liked to have seen Allison Park (#8) finish a little stronger when finishing third at this level in her last start, especially seeing as how she’s the lukewarm morning line favorite in this race. She is making her third start off the layoff, so she could be sitting on a career best effort today. I think others offer more value, but her two local efforts this year have been good enough to make sure she’s covered. 

Race 9, The $100K Get Serious Stakes:

It is worth noting that after the 5th and 7th races were taken off the turf yesterday, the track felt confident enough in the condition of the turf course to proceed with both stakes races on the grass. However, this is a five furlong sprint, so they’re could be a little more caution employed if the course takes a decent amount of water overnight and into the morning. If they go on the grass, I doubt the course will be firm, so I do think that could set the table nicely for Smooth B (#5). He was 6th in this race last year when beaten by Grooms All Bizness, however, that course was quite firm. This ten year old likes a course with some give in it. He hasn’t been on the turf since this race last year and he’s making his second start off the layoff. Age is just a number in races like this and I think there’s a good chance he gets his picture taken in this spot. Horsepower (#2) is the backup for me in this spot. He’s been very good at this five furlong distance, winning a handicap two back at Gulfstream on a very firm course. The six furlong trip in New York last month might have been a touch too far. However, the trip was less than ideal. He bobbled at the break and then was trapped behind horses slamming on the brakes down the backstretch. A softer course is a new experience for him, so I don’t want too short of a price, but I do think he’s better than his last race. 

On the dirt, Super Chow (#9) is the class of this field. He was a three time Grade 3 winner last year. He was a little short in the Mr. Prospector Stakes last month when making his first start since finishing off the board in the Golden Shaheen in Dubai. He has the speed and the class to be a force with these. Spikezone (#11) will make him work every step of the way. His last two have not been his best, but he was a beast in 2024. He won 11 times in 14 starts last year. He’s only 1 for 6 this year, but he’s been pretty good in defeat, including running a 101 Beyer Speed Figure at Laurel three back. Downtownchalybrown (#8) is more of a backup for me. He was good enough to be second at this distance in the Rumson last year. He could be stalking behind a hot pace and might have enough juice to pass them late on his best day.

Race 10: 

Fillies and mares will go one mile on the dirt in this beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race. All eight ladies in this one qualified under the N2L condition. This distance is a real question mark for many of these. This is a huge drop for the favorite, Little Squeeze (#1), but I can’t play her in this spot. Her last two have been awful, and while her best will win easily here, I’d rather look for some value. Tiger Forever (#3) ran well enough when she was second beaten seven at this level last out for me to use her on top in this spot today. She went to the front with a bug boy in the saddle. She couldn’t go with the winner, but she came back with a late surge to get into second. She showed nothing in her first four starts, but she’s starting to figure things out. Misspent (#7) was second with beaten $12,500-$10,500 claimers in her local debut when facing winners for the first time. She’ll have to prove she can be as effective at two turns, but she feels like the one to beat. Profit Hunter (#5) makes her third start off the layoff and the second start off the claim. She was a wide 4th at this level two back. She moved up in class and cut back in distance last out. She should be a little more fit and could be a candidate to move up a bit when going back to a route. 

Race 11: 

The nightcap is a $16K-$14K N3X claiming race for three year olds and up, scheduled to go 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Shogun Be Fast (#7) should have every opportunity to wire this field on the turf. I don’t see any real competition for the early lead in what should be his first turf start in almost a year. He’s second off the layoff and stretching back to two turns after finishing in mid-pack in an off the turf sprint at this level two weeks ago. He has good efforts on this course and should be tough to run down if he can set a pokey pace. Between the Covers (#3) might need the race, but he’s usually competitive at this level. A little give in the course might not be the worst thing for him as he just missed on a yielding course at Penn in 2023. There are definite gaps, but the recent works suggest that he’s fit. Righthere Rightnow (#2) is the morning line favorite on the class drop. He’s competitive, but there’s a reasonable chance that the pace is not going to give him the best shot to get his picture taken. He’s good enough to cover with, but I think he’s going to have to work hard to score. 

On the dirt, Shogun Be Fast is also live, but I think Bolt d’Plata (#9) could have a slight edge. He’s been very sharp in two starts here this season. He was a winner two weeks ago when sprinting. He can handle two turns and I think he could work out a sweet, stalking trip. Goldfire (#10) is the lone MTO and he was huge last weekend when beating a lesser group. He’ll take money in this race, but it is a big ask to come back a week after a career top figure. I worry about the bounce. I don’t want him at short odds, but if he’s in the 4-1 neighborhood, I could be convinced to use him a little more. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 27/104 (26.0%), $265.60, $2.55 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)