BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS– 9/21/2024
RACE 1: 7-3-1-6
#7 ROOKIE CARD is a second time starter who ran a bang-up race on debut, fighting all the way to a runner-up finish. He should improve with experience and trainer Danny Gargan has a good record with 2nd timers overall. The outside draw is ideal for him to stalk and pounce as an overwhelming favorite.
RACE 2: 8-3-4-6
The layoff return for #8 STRAIGHT ARROW is a minor concern, but trainer Mike Dini has wanted to get this son of Arrogate onto turf. He was a handy winner off the turf last fall and that ended up leading him to the Empire Classic, which he won handily. His pedigree is geared towards turf and he was stuck in serious traffic in his lone prior grass outing.
RACE 3: 5-9-1/1A-6
#5 THANK YOU JON has a great deal of speed and should be involved from the outset today for trainer Jesus Romero. He showed speed last out before fading and the field he faced that day was solid despite having the N3L designation. This is a reasonable spot for him to be a serious pace threat at a good price.
RACE 4: 7-8-1-3
#7 BRIGADE COMMANDER ran very well last time out missing by a whisker on the weeds. He’s back on the main track today off the claim and his new conditioner likely saw his future coming on the dirt. He adds blinkers and that will keep him involved from the outset in a race that’s short on speed.
RACE 5: 2-7-6-9
#2 BOBBY M’S GIRL did everything but win last time out and now looks to get over the hump in career start #5. Her jockey is a slight concern, given that her success has largely come on dirt. This fill yhas speed and can use that from the inside draw to be a major threat from the outset. Look for her in the opening strides.
RACE 6: 4-5-7-3
The trip endured last time out by #4 YORK TAVERN was undoubtedly bad enough to give him a look in here. He made a middle move last time out before flattening out and now bids to get his 2nd career win while in light with the bug boy astride. He has held his form since the most recent claim and that feels like an accomplishment in and of itself.
RACE 7: 9-7-5-8
#9 SUNDAY GIFT is bred for early success being by 11% debut sire Goldencents. The dam backed nearly 40k and won 3x while her lone foal to race is also a winner. This barn is among the best around with 2YOs in NY and that only adds to the appeal. Tab the tote action to get a send of where the monsy is heading.
RACE 8: 8-1-6-9
If you are planning to back #8 SAFFRON MOON, then you’re hoping she is ridden forwarldy out of the gate. She has been borderline Grade II caliber since she broke her maiden she was clearly.a runner with a great deal of upside. With a forwardly placed trip, she is a major threat for top honors at a square price.
RACE 9: 1-4-2-10
#1 COIF had trouble in each of her first two turf starts and now cuts back in distance for trainer Chad Brown. She has had difficulty along the way in the prior turf outings, which keeps us from knowing whether she is limited distance-wise. Assuming that she is, this is a great spot and the presence of an aggressive pilot ensures she’ll be involved in the opening stages.
RACE 10: 9-11-12-10
In one of the better allowance races you’ll see around these parts, #9 KEY POINT gets the nod given the race he ran last time out. He was wide the entire way on a day when you had to save ground. This is an open company try and is his first overall, so there’s reason to believe he’ll be a good price in a deep and competitive heat.
RACE 11: 3-7-8-4
#3 FAKE CELEBRITY returns off a layoff for Chad Brown after breaking his maiden at second asking. He was a non-threatening 2nd on debut then improved at second asking against a field that turned out to be quite solid. Brown is 10 for his last 25 with turf routers off 300+ day breaks at downstate NYRA tracks ($3.76 ROI).
BELMONT AT THE BIG A STATS THRU 09-20: 48-15-8-2 $100.10
