BAQ ANALYSIS – 6/20/24
RACE 1: 6-5-7-1
Jumps – Not exactly my forte 😉
RACE 2: 3-7-2-5
#3 OUT ON BAIL ran very well on debut coming up less than a length shy of the win against similar NY bred MSW runners. He is the one to beat today as a 2nd timer and meets one tough looking firster in #7 MO PLEX, who also worked quickly at the OBS April sale earlier this year. Look for this son of Tiz the Law to come out of the gate swinging.
RACE 3: 3-5-6-4
#3 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE goes first off a claim by Linda Rice after coming up short of #6 KHALI MAGIC when they met here a month ago. The change in barns can bring out the best in this daughter of Congrats, who has shown flashes of serious ability in the not so distant past. She is more capable of sitting off the pace, so someone pushing ‘Khali early will help.
RACE 4: 6-7-1/1A-3
#6 MS SEDONA returns off a layoff following a strong run when 2nd behind the flashy maiden winner Sy B. This filly is by Justify, who isn’t the most encouraging sire when it comes to 11 furlongs on the weeds. Nonetheless, the way she ran last out is encouraging and the price here will be fair in a wide open event.
RACE 5: 6-5-2-1
#6 CHASING DAYLIGHT is the one to catch today for Rudy Rodriguez off a narrow miss last out against similar. She is at her best at or around a mile given that she is quick enough to get command and can establish a modest tempo. That is likely the case here given the other win candidates want to come from off the pace.
RACE 6: 10-1/1A-3-6
#10 LINARITE surged late last out against a better field and now lands in an ideal spot class-wise. The issue with this mare is her lack of speed, so she frequently puts herself in tough spots having to make big rallies in turf sprints. There’s some pace in here and again, this is a particularly weak group even for this level.
RACE 7: 6-1-2-9
One of the more interesting horses on this card is #6 MY KINDA MISCHIEF, who has the speed to get clear of this bunch early. Her form is darkened up by a turf start last out where she set the pace and tired late. The number of races she’s landed in where the pace was fast is vast and a softer tempo today is going to help her chances.
RACE 8: 1-6-7-2
#1 REVALITA returns off a layoff and drops in class for trainer Chad Brown. This filly showed real ability last year in four starts where she went winless, but ran winning races multiple times. She gets Lasix for the first time today and draws a cozy inside post from which she can save ground throughout.
RACE 9: 9-4-8-11
#9 SONIC SPEED has been consistently good at this level and looks to clear the condition today for Tom Morley. He missed by a nose last out with a wide trip and should be in a coveted spot just off the pace this afternoon. His best races make him strictly the one to beat and he will be a good price at his morning line of 5-1.
