Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 2/3/24 – By Eric Solomon

This is the first big day of racing at this 2023-2024 meet as there’s a 12 race card this afternoon with an earlier post time and an expanded wagering menu. There are three Pick-5 wagers on the card, with the extra wager starting in Race 5. Race 6 starts a Pick-4 and there’s an All-Stakes Pick-4 starting in Race 8. The Late Pick-5 in Race 8 and the Late Pick-4 in Race 9 will still be offered. The highlight of the program is the $800K Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, which is a 40 point race on the road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby. There’s a strong field of 12 assembled for what is an excellent betting race. The King Cotton, Marsha Washington, and American Beauty Stakes also help to support this strong program. Keep an eye on the weather as rain was in the forecast today. First post is an hour earlier, going off at 11:30 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

I’m not finding a ton of viable alternatives to the morning line favorite, No Coincidences (#8) in the opener, which is a state bred maiden special weight race fillies and mares. She ran a big race out of the gate for the Moquet barn, which isn’t known for having their firsters fully cranked. While his numbers with second time starters aren’t great, his runners tend to improve from start one to two. As long as this filly doesn’t regress from her debut, she should beat this group. Adamantly (#6) is the runner that I ended up using as a backup in this race. She was a distant second in her debut last January and then went to the sidelines for almost a full year. She likely needed her last race, where she finished 5th, running on a bit late. I don’t love that Esquivel hops off in favor of Q’s Your Mama (#7), but the weight break from the apprentice rider Barbosa should help her in her second start off the layoff. Q’s Your Mama was assigned a short price when she didn’t draw into a race at this level. She was made the third price on the morning line today, while running for a barn that has one debut winner in 44 starters over the last five years. While the works don’t jump off the page and there are a lot of concerns, the fact that this one was installed at this low of number makes me think that she has shown some ability. I’ll watch her in the paddock and warming up on track and keep an eye on the tote for more clues. I’ll likely back up with her on some deeper plays.  

Race 2: 

There’s a full field of 12 in this N1X allowance sprint. The morning line favorite is Favorite Outlaw (#7), but there’s speed drawn to his inside and outside, which could make this a tricky trip for him. He has strong speed figures on this oval, winning her twice and finishing second four other times in six career starts. He broke his maiden here and won last out in a $75K N2L claiming race. He’s moving up in class and while he’s been close at this level, he’s found a way to lose too many times to be willing to accept a short price. I’ll back up with him, but I’ll try to beat him with Startdfromdabottom (#8). He ran well in the slop at the Fair Grounds two starts back in a strong starter allowance race on the Claiming Crown Card. He tried stakes company on Tapeta at Turfway last out. He sat a stalking trip but struggled to accelerate on a different surface. All seven of his career wins have been at this distance, and all of them have been on the main track. John Ennis claimed this Ohio bred at Belterra in September and he’s been very close twice. I think this is a clever spot for him and I see him sitting the right stalking trip. Camp Daddy (#6) is coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes at this level in New Orleans. He likes to sit a little farther off the pace, which might not be the worst thing in this race. He’s an improving five year old he’s campaigned by a trainer that won 28% of his races in 2023. Both of his starters at this meet have been live. Bohemian Bo (#3) is coming off a strong victory with state bred allowance company. Despite being state bred competition, that was a very good race and he took it to that group from the time the gates opened. He was second at this level two starts back on opening weekend. Inside speed wasn’t bad yesterday and that inside position may prove to be advantageous if he can run back to that race. 

Race 3:

Arkansas breds will go six furlongs in this optional $25K claiming/N1X allowance race. I’m interested in Choctaw Zip (#3) to give Ernie Witt his first winner of the meet. He’s much more dangerous when competing in state bred company. He broke his maiden in his second career start, which came on this oval in the slop last December. He struggled in a pair of open races and then came back to be a respectable 4th in the Rainbow Stakes for three year Arky bred sprinters. He went to the sidelines and returned at this level in a one mile race in December. The pace was strong that day and he was trying two turns for the first time. He made up some ground but flattened out late to be 6th. That could have been a function of the longer distance combined with his first start off of a layoff. He cuts back in distance and there might be an off track today, which proved to be to his liking when he broke his maiden. I think he has a big chance regardless of track surface. He’d be a lone A horse for me on a fast track, but if the track does come up muddy or sloppy as expected, I think Al’s Romeo (#10) is a must use. He’s coming off a strong race last week in the slop. I don’t love the quick turnaround for him, and I’m not crazy about the fact that he’s struggled to put two big races together. However, his three strongest races came on off tracks. He’s been below average on fast tracks, so the fact that there’s rain in the forecast should be to his connections’ delight. Where’s Randy (#9) is coming off a 6th place finish in open allowance company at Churchill where he posted a career high Beyer Speed Figure. His numbers locally were all fairly steady in the high to mid 60’s range last year, figures that would likely not be good enough to win with this group. His last race in November was his first start since April, so there’s a chance that this now five year old did some growing up last summer. While I don’t love taking short prices on horses who have a career top speed figure in a race where they’re several lengths behind the winner, I think the board should be fairly wide open, and there’s enough evidence to convince me that he could back that number up.

Race 4: 

Three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight race. I’m on team Asmussen in this race, giving the preference to Grand Emperor (#13) if he’s able to make it into the body of the field. He debuted in a 5 ½ furlong sprint at Churchill in November. Mystik Dan put up a huge figure when winning that race. He broke alright near the inside, but was shuffled back to last after getting in a tight spot. He accelerated with a wide bid and passed some horses while showing late interest. I think an outside draw would be to his benefit, along with the additional 1/16 of a mile. He’s the first foal to race from the mare Off My Stage who was 4th in her debut, but broke her maiden in her second career try. If he doesn’t draw in, I’ll use the Runhappy firster from the same barn, Happy Grey (#6). He’s been working well enough for Asmussen and Joel Rosario taking the mount is a plus. His dam was very good in her first three races, winning on debut. His Tomlinson Figure is significantly higher than the one for Morunning (#8), who is a Brad Cox first timer that is installed as the second choice at 5-2 on the morning line. While that barn does a nice job with first timers, I’m not crazy about taking a short price on him, especially since those figures suggest he might not be his best in the mud. This barn did get a win in the Grade 3 Bayakoa yesterday, and Cox’s runners always seem to show up on big racing days. I’ll use him as a backup, while possibly upgrading him if the course is dry. Mr Fillip (#2) is the morning line favorite after a strong effort at this level on New Year’s Eve. He battled every step of the way from his outside draw and finished a game second, while posting a gaudy 85 Beyer Speed Figure. While he stands out on that number, I don’t think that group that he beat was the strongest. He’s drawn inside today and may also have to navigate a wet track for the first time. He’s another one that I’ll cover with, while trying to find better value in the vertical exotics. 

Race 5: 

When comparing running lines, it’s always important to look at the fine print in the conditions. Most of the $30K starter allowance races in the condition book at Oaklawn are also restricted to horses that have not cleared the first level allowance or are subject to an additional condition. That typically leaders to lesser fields in those races. This race is for horses that have started for a $30K tag or less only one time since 2022. For example, last year Shady Empire (#5) ran two very good races in $30K and $50K starter allowance races here, however both of those races had additional conditions. So while it looks like he’s coming back to this level after a win in open claiming company month, he’s actually moving up in class. While he does have some races that would be very competitive at this level, I think the value we get on this horse might be less than what it should be. Horses like Stage Left (#12) and Jackman (#3) wouldn’t have been eligible for those races and I think these two short prices are a standout. Stage Left ships out of New York for David Jacobsen after back to back off the board finishes in stakes races in two consecutive weeks at the end of 2023. He won both the King Leatherbury and Rumson Stakes last year and was third in both the Grade 3 Runhappy Stakes and the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Stakes in New York. He remains eligible for this condition because he ran for a $25K tag at Keeneland in April of 2022. At some point in the near future the condition book is going to switch having started for a tag in 2023-24, so shipping here for the winner’s share of a $65K purse makes some sense. He does have a win in three starts on this oval and I think he can sit the right trip stalking the speed of Jackman, who is in search of his 4th straight win. He’s in very good form, winning twice in races like this on this oval. He’s an upgrade on an off track, never finishing worse than second in five career tries. Broberg continues to try to strike while the iron is hot, but he hasn’t had to deal with the class of a runner like Stage Left in those last few starts. 

Race 6: 

It’s not uncommon to see a maiden special weight race for three year olds at two turns on the same card as a signature three year old stakes race and that is the case with this 1 1/16 mile race. I see a serious lack of early speed in this race, and seeing as how it was good to be forwardly placed yesterday, I think there’s a sizable advantage to Speedtail (#5) for Ingrid Mason in this race. He’s paired his last two Beyer Speed Figures after a slow start to his career in his first two starts. He handled the slop well two starts back at Churchill to be a decent at huge odds to Snead. That one came back to romp in a first level allowance at the Fair Grounds and he finished second to Track Phantom in the Gun Runner Stakes in his last try. Francisco Arrieta was a tad aggressive, sending him out to a 22:4 opening quarter last out, and he was gasping for air late, losing by less than a length. I don’t think he’ll need to ride him as hard out of the gate with this group. I think he’s sitting on a race where he can move forward, and I think there’s a chance that he could be overlooked in the wagering, going off at odds greater than his 9-2 morning line price. When Rosario rode here last, he was very sharp, and he’s getting the mount on Dimatic (#2) for the third time. He may have pushed the button too soon last out when closing into a strong pace. The inside post should allow him to stalk from a much better position today. His Tomlinson Figure is considerably higher than any other runner in this field. This is his third career start and his second at two turns, so a big effort from him in this spot seems quite possible. This is the duo that makes the most sense in this spot to me. 

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Race 7:

This is a conditional allowance for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. I think the Arkansas bred mare, Kantex (#5) is very interesting in this race. She clearly loves this course, winning four of five times with her only loss coming in a two turn race. She’s a perfect 4-4 at this distance and she’s making her second start off a layoff today. She ran strong races with open allowance company at Ellis and Churchill at long odds prior to easily disposing of state bred competition. This seems to be a good spot to get her ready for the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes next month against fellow Arkansas breds. While this is a tougher field than what she saw last time out, I’m not sure the shorter prices in this field are sitting on their best race, whereas I can see her taking a step forward after her last race. Aunt Becca (#11) is the alternative for me for Cherie DeVaux. She has been based here since the start of the year, possibly with an eye on some of the stakes options like the Carousel and the Matron Stakes coming up. She seemed a bit off in her June and October races, but when you draw a line through them, she has a nice progression through her other four starts. She’s never started on an off track, but being sired by Uncle Mo out of a Broken Vow mare, that doesn’t concern me at all. There’s some speed signed on, but I don’t anticipate a speed duel here, which should also help her cause. 

Race 8, $150K King Cotton Stakes: 

Steve Asmussen sends out a trio in this six furlong stakes race. While you didn’t need to be on the lead to win yesterday, it was good to be forwardly placed. The three Asmussen runners are probably the three speediest runners in the field, and Skelly (#8) in the outside stall, is the quickest of all. While his three runners are all owned by different interests, I can’t see Keith Asmussen or Joel Rosario trying to duel with Skelly, who is the best gate horse in the field. He came back running in allowance company when he made his first start since May at the end of December. He was excellent here last season and has a great record on this oval .He’s going to be a short price, but I think there’s too many positive signals to look elsewhere. Tejano Twist (#3) made a huge sweeping move to win the Ring the Bell Stakes here on opening weekend. He was well back, but gobbled up ground quickly to win by five lengths. Like Skelly, he does his best work on this oval, and he’s looking to score his third consecutive stakes win. If there was another dedicated front runner to apply pressure to Skelly, I’d like his chances more in this spot. However, I think the most likely scenario is the favorite on a loose lead, which should make him very tough to catch. 

Race 9, The $250K Martha Washington Stakes: 

Three year old fillies are looking to earn points to get into the starting gate for the Kentucky Oaks in this 1 1/16 mile contest. I think Saratoga Secret (#6) is very interesting in this race, getting two turns for the first time. She ran well in her first two races, winning on debut at Ellis and then finishing second in the Grade 3 Schuylerville at Saratoga. After scratching out of the Adirondack, she resurfaced in the Fern Creek Stakes at Churchill in November. She had some troubles in the first furlong, as she was forced to steady, being relegated to the back of the field. She made an eye-catching move from the back of the pack, but was forced to go way wide on the turn. She leveled off late, finishing 4th, beaten about eight lengths after the top two finishers drew clear. She shipped here and was entered in an allowance race in December where she was a much closer 4th. She had some traffic woes in that race as she got caught behind a horse going in the wrong direction. She was able to shift out and make a run along the inside part of the track. She’s sired by Arrogate out of an unraced Fort Larned mare, so I do think there’s a good chance that she’s going to improve considerably in her first try at two turns. Lukas won this race in 2022 with an Arrogate filly named Secret Oath who really turned a corner when coming to Oaklawn, and I think there’s a chance that history could repeat itself. Brad Cox has a pair of nice fillies in the outside two stalls in this race. Denim and Pearls (#8) is the 6-5 favorite on the morning line after finishing a close second in the Years End Stakes. She drew a wide post that day and perhaps Prat pushed the button a little too soon with her, keeping in mind that one mile race ended at the 1/16 pole. She looked winning her first two starts in one turn races in Kentucky. She’s a full sister to Newgate who won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last year and was second last weekend in the San Pasqual Stakes. In Good Taste (#9) debuted for Cox in a $150K maiden claiming at Keeneland in October. She ran well enough in that race to be entered in a maiden allowance race in her last start. She was well-backed at the windows with Martin Chuan riding here for the first time. He made an aggressive move where she seized the lead going into the far turn. Honor Cat came up to her outside and she refused to let that filly by as those two drew off in their own match race late. Her rival came back to break her maiden in her next start, validating that effort. The outside post is not ideal, but I do think this filly has some ability.

Race 10, The $150K American Beauty Stakes:

Alva Starr (#4) is the heavy favorite for her four year old debut. She was the dominant winner of the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga two starts back at the distance. She came back and she just missed after being a part of an aggressive pace battle in the Grade 2 Raven Run, when going seven furlongs at Keeneland. Brett Brinkman gave her about two months off before bringing her back to the worktab at the Fair Grounds. She’s an extremely talented sprint, and her form towers over this field on paper. However, she is making her first start in 3 ½ months and there’s other speed signed on for this race. She’s too good to ignore, but she could be vulnerable, and at odds of even money or possibly lower, I’ll try to beat her with Royal Spa (#9). She’s tried longer distances, but this six furlong trip that she’s getting here seems to be her sweet spot. She closed from off the pace to win an allowance race on this oval last season. She tried two turns again, but struggled at the longer distance in the Fantasy. She went to the sidelines and came back in to win an allowance race at Keeneland. Her effort in the La Brea at Santa Anita wasn’t terrible, even though the figure came back on the light side. The winner of that race was on a comfortable lead, while setting a moderate pace. I think Alva Starr will go fast and there are others in this race that could force the issue. Look for this filly to get going late on a course that has played fair throughout the meet.

Race 11: The $80K Grade 3 Southwest Stakes:

I have this race covered in more depth on the ITM Triple Crown Blog which I have linked below. Bob Baffert has six wins in this race and I think he’s well-spotted for his 7th with Wynstock (#5).He was last seen winning the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December. He’s an improving colt who should benefit from an uninterrupted training schedule in sunny, Southern California. Liberal Arts (#6) is the other graded stakes winner in this field, winning the Street Sense in his last start in October. He can come from off the pace and should get a decent pace set up. The same could be said for Linebacker (#9), who is one of two maidens in this field. He had a miserable trip in his last start where he was the beaten favorite. He can run from off the pace and he could be a strong value play, especially underneath in the vertical exotics. Carbone (#7) passed the two turn test when winning an allowance race when going gate to wire a few weeks ago. He’s drawn outside and inside of some other speed, so Ricardo Santana is going to have some decisions to make. I do think the potential is there though, so I will be covering him on some of my tickets. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2024-kentucky-derby-the-grade-3-southwest-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

Race 12:

This is a fascinating N1X allowance race where most of the runners have cleared this condition at lower level tracks. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, so unless there’s been a glaring speed bias throughout the day, I’m downgrading the dedicated frontrunners. Pledgeofallegiance (#9) ran a strong race here, just missing at long odds at this level at the end of December. That was his first start since he was claimed by Ron Moquett at the end of the Keeneland Fall Meet. He fits a similar profile to Huge Bigly who won yesterday for Moquett and Bejarano. He sat off the two frontrunners and made a strong three wide bid to power past them in the stretch. After a slow start to the meet, this barn has been warming up and I think he could keep things going. Alexander Helios (#8) shows up here for Saffie Joseph. Joseph hasn’t had a starter at this meet and he doesn’t have a starter in any of the stakes races on the card. He comes in after two straight wins. He broke his maiden with a strong effort at Churchill in November. He returned in N1X company at Tampa, which seemed like an interesting decision, seeing as how Gulfstream offers better purses and is considerably closer to his Palm Meadows base. Perhaps this is Joseph testing the waters here, as the purse structure in Arkansas is still significantly better than Florida over the winter. On paper, he fits very well with this group and Florent Geroux taking the mount doesn’t hurt his chances. Chrome Baby (#12) is a longer priced option with some upside in this spot. He was rolling at Remington before stumbling in the JA Hawk Memorial Stakes in the mud in December. He’s likely going to need to take back to avoid losing too much ground, but that might not be the worst thing in this race. He’s probably better suited to the lower part of the vertical exotics, but he could win with the right setup. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 40/168 (23.8%, $393.40, $2.34 ROI)