Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 3 Southwest Stakes – By Eric Solomon

The second Derby Points race on the Arkansas trail to the Kentucky Derby comes a week later than anticipated, but it still drew a large field of 12. Smart Jones and Essential Quality have used this race over the last several years to go on to success in the Triple Crown Races. Lawyer Ron and Secret Circle went on to be Grade 1 winners later in their careers after both were winners in this race as well.

Bob Baffert has won this race six times in his career and he looks to take home the trophy for the third consecutive year when sending out Wynstock in this race. He’s been installed as the 4-1 second choice on the morning line, in what figures to be a fairly wide open contest. 

This will be the first of four Derby Points Preview Races that I’ll be posting about this week. I’ll have coverage of the Holy Bull at Gulfstream posted tomorrow night. There will also be previews of the Withers at Aqueduct and the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita posted on Friday night and/or Saturday morning. 

Oaklawn Park Saturday 2/3/24, Race 11: The $800K Grade 3 Southwest Stakes

40 Total Derby points (20/8/6/4/2)

1 – Maycocks Bay (3-1 ML, 150-1 Circa): The Beyer Boys are going to like this horse, as he earned the top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 95, when clearing the N2L condition at the Fair Grounds. There were only six runners in that race, which was originally scheduled for the turf. He got away with an easy lead while setting soft fractions, and he had plenty left for the stretch, where he opened up at will to win by over 10 lengths. He didn’t beat much that day though, and this is going to be a major test. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to set dawdling fractions on an uncontested lead. He’s also facing runners that are more accomplished on the dirt than the five foes he vanquished in New Orleans last month. I do see why they intended to get him on the grass, as his dam was a multiple stakes winner on turf and horses sired by the late sire, Speightstown, have done very well on the lawn. I’d be interested to see him take a swing in one of the three year old races on grass in his next start, but after putting up such a big number last out, I respect the idea that the connections want to try to dream the Derby dream. He’s going to be a pass for me though. 

2 – Charleston (30-1 ML): This Tapiture colt is one of two maidens in this field, which really doesn’t need any filler. He was claimed for $75K when he was second two starts back. He tried a maiden special weight here last month and was 11th, beaten over 20 lengths. I don’t really understand taking this kind of chance with a horse like this.

3 – Magic Grant (30-1 ML): This son of Good Magic was my longshot pick in the Springboard Mile at Remington in December, prior to scratches taking away some of the speed in that race. He was visually impressive when rallying from off the pace to win the Clever Trevor Stakes when going seven furlongs at the end of October. I thought he was a horse that could be eligible to improve in the Springboard Mile, and while he did do that, he came up two lengths short, beaten by Otto the Conqueror. I do think he’s going to continue to get better, but this is a big step up in class. He’s going to have some pace to chase here, so I could see him passing some tiring horses late, however, he’s going to have to be significantly faster to finish in the money in this race. 

4 – Otto the Conqueror (5-1 ML, 100-1 Circa): I thought this Asmussen runner was vulnerable in the Remington Springboard Mile last out, and while he was in the sense that his speed figure regressed significantly from his previous start, he still was able to gut out a win after battling on the front end for the better part of that mile contest. He did pass the two turn test and he continues to work well over this oval. Rosario is on town this weekend and he’ll get the assignment on this $450K son of Street Sense. His dam won her first three starts as a two year old, including a win in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. She only raced twice after that, so it’s hard to be sure about what distance limitations she may or may not have had. While his speed figures are up and down, it’s hard to argue with his performance on the track so far. I’m not sure I’m going to get the value I’ll need to play him though. 

5 – Wynstock (4-1 ML): Bob Baffert won’t be training horses in the Derby this year and since Ed Allred and Jack Liebau have decided to stick with him, this one is not running for the Derby Points. However, $800K in purse money is worth making the trip from Southern California. He was the gate to wire winner of the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December, making him one of only two graded stakes winners in this lucrative race. He was the other, other Baffert horse in that race, going off at a juicy 13-1. He won’t be that number in this race, and since he’s coming on from Southern California, there’s been no weather related hiccups in his training schedule, which certainly could mean something at this time of year. Baffert tabs Kyle Frey to come in to ride once again, as he’s undefeated in the two starts that he’s been on his back. I noted last time that I was intrigued with the fact that his owners paid $700K for a horse who is sired by a horse with a $7,500 stud fee, and while that wasn’t enough to move the needle for me in that race, it is definitely part of his intrigue with him in this race for me. I think his fitness level will be a big part of his edge in this race. 

6 – Liberal Arts (8-1 ML, 65-1 Circa): This Arrogate colt raced five times as a two year old, ending his campaign with a win in the Grade 3 Street Sense in the slop at Churchill in October. Robert Medina has given him a little time away and now he’ll start getting serious about his three year old season here. His dam was a California bred who won some stakes races as a two year old. She’s produced a few useful Cal bred runners, which likely earned her the chance to be paired with a sire like Arrogate. That decision has been rewarded with five in the money finishes in five tries, with two wins in that group. He progressively got better with each start, while gradually adding distance each time. He only has three record works at the Thoroughbred Training Center, so he might be a little light in fitness for a race like this. I do see this runner having some upside though. While I don’t love him today, he is one that I’m watching closely, thinking that he’ll be better next time. 

7 – Carbone (9-2 ML, 70-1 Circa): It’ll be interesting to see the freshman crop of Mitole in some of these longer races, to see how they fare. Mitole had some decent stamina influences in his pedigree, and he was good enough to win the Met Mile, despite being best known for his work at shorter distances. This colt may be the best of his first crop, winning his first two races without ever really being challenged. He handled the two turn mile with ease at the end of December, pairing his debut Beyer Speed Figure. Northern Flame, who won last weekend, finished 4th to him, flattering his effort. He makes his third career start and his second try at two turns, so I do see him taking a decent step forward in this race. My concern about him is that he’s had everything his own way in first two starts, and that could be said for many of these runners. Something is going to have to give with this big field and many of these horses are likely to be uncomfortable on the track at some point in this race. How they’ll respond is anyone’s guess. That is why I’d be hesitant to take too short of a price on anyone here. That being said, I think he does have a strong chance to win this race. 

8 – Common Defense (15-1 ML): This son of Karakontie makes his third career start after breaking his maiden on the local oval three weeks ago. Both of his races have been at two turns and he’s shown the ability to come from off the pace, a trait which could serve him well in this spot. Like Carbone, he’s paired his first two Beyer Speed Figures, so there’s reason to believe that he can move forward in this spot. However, I don’t think he’s run in the strongest maiden races at this meet and he’s really going to have to step up his game to finish on the board in this race. 

9 – Linebacker (30-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): He’s the other maiden in this full field, coming off a second place finish in his local debut. That was also his first two turn test, which was an eventful race for him. He broke last as the even money favorite that day. He made a strong middle move down the backstretch, but had to tap on the brakes as there was nowhere for Bejarano to go. He turned for home and had to shift out, all while Rosario was able to get his mount to open up at will after setting a sensible early pace on the front end. He finished second, well in front of the other ten runners in that field. He comes into this race as a longshot, and rightfully so, seeing as how he’s yet to win a race. I do think his last effort is definitely better than it looks on paper, and while this is a big step up in class, I see him having more upside than many of his rivals in this spot. I would like to see him break a little better, as he’s been flat-footed in two of his three career starts so far. He’s an interesting longshot play in this race and one that I’ll definitely be including underneath. 

10 – Mystik Dan (12-1 ML, 175-1 Circa): Kenny McPeek’s other runner in this race ran better than I thought he would in the Smarty Jones Stakes here last month, finishing 5th, beaten less than 4 lengths. He was excellent when breaking his maiden in a very fast 5 ½ furlong race at Churchill back in November. However, he faltered when facing winners at the one turn one mile distance there a few weeks later. He drew closer to the rail in that race, but his outside draw today likely works against him. He showed that he can be effective at two turns last out, but I’m still not convinced that he is going to be at his best at this kind of distance. I’m going to pass on him in this spot. 

11 – Just Steel (8-1 ML, 150-1 Circa): He was the morning line favorite in the Smarty Jones after running a big effort to win the Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill two starts ago. In his first local try, he stalked an aggressive pace while in the three path for the majority of the race. He made his run for the front, but Catching Freedom, who was bet down to the post time favorite, got the right set up, and went by him while opening up by over two lengths on the wire. He did finish second in that race, proving that he might be able to get this distance. His best prior races were his one turn sprints. His wins at Saratoga and Churchill were excellent, but he’s also run his share of clunkers. Overall, I liked his effort in the Smarty Jones, but he’s another one that was done no favors with his high draw. Ramon Vazquez had him in the clear while under a snug hold last out. It looked like he had an opportunity to slide in closer to the rail behind runners, but he either missed that opportunity or declined to take that position. That tells me that he’s likely going to have to ask him for more at break in order to secure forward position, and I’m not sure that’s the kind of trip that will be a winning one with this group. 

12 – Awesome Road (8-1 ML, 150-1 Circa): This Quality Road colt was cross-entered in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway two weeks ago when he was also entered in the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds. Racing at Turfway was canceled that weekend and that stakes race was brought back for this Friday night. Cox said earlier in the week that he is planning on racing here instead of shipping him to Kentucky. He was excellent in his debut at Ellis when going six furlongs. He posted a big 88 Beyer Figure for that effort, but he has struggled to match that brilliance in his last two starts when going two turns on the dirt while facing graded stakes company. Prat came with an early bid while four wide in the Kentucky Jockey Club when he made his last start, but he was flat through the length of the stretch, fading to 5th, more than 10 lengths behind the winner. He’s another runner that didn’t lose any training time due to the bad weather, so that may be helpful for him if he does opt for this race. Despite a sparkling pedigree, his last two races have been extremely underwhelming, and I’m not convinced he’s going to snap out of it with this group. 

The Verdict: 5-6-9

I think there’s a lot of ways that you could go in this race and price is going to be a key factor in how I’ll play this race. Assuming all 12 runners go, 4-1 is the shortest price I’d be willing to take on anyone. I think that number is too low for both Maycocks Bay (#1) and Carbone (#7), but that feels like the right number for Wynstock (#5). He’s shipping here for a barn that routinely makes successful business trips to Hot Springs. While he’s been a better horse since Kyle Frey took over and put him on the lead, I don’t think he’s a horse that has to be on the front end to run his best race. On paper, others are faster early on, but I think he has enough early foot to secure a decent early position. 7 of 12 runners in this race are based locally and all of them missed a scheduled workout due to weather. While I don’t think that is a huge deal, I do think it gives this son of Solomini an edge. Baffert works his horses more aggressively than a lot of East Coast trainers, and while his runners aren’t always the most talented, they always seem to be extremely fit when they’re pointing toward a big race. Even though he’s the only runner in the field that is not eligible to earn points toward entry in the Kentucky Derby, I do think the $800K purse means a lot, especially for a horse that cost his owners $700K at auction. To go that deep for a horse from an unproven freshman sire that wasn’t spectacular on the racetrack, tells me that this horse has more than meets the eye. I give him the advantage in this spot. 

I do expect a spoiled early tempo, so there are two runners that I’m looking at using that are proven to be able to come from off the pace. Liberal Arts (#6) was good enough to win the Grade 3 Street Sense in the slop in his last start of 2023. He’s an Arrogate colt that continues to improve with each start. I think there’s a chance that the only other graded stakes winner in the field (Wynstock being the other) is overlooked due to having a trainer that isn’t a nationally recognized name yet. This colt was his trainer’s first graded stakes winner, so he’s already likely the best horse that he’s had in his barn to date. While Medina’s numbers aren’t very good off the layoff, he’s based in Kentucky, so he’s had less training disruptions over the last few weeks compared to the locally based runners. 

I think a crazy longshot in this field that has a chance to finish in the money is one of the two maidens, Linebacker (#9). He faced good horses in maiden company, and he ran well in his first two starts. His last start doesn’t look good on paper, but he had a miserable trip when routing for the first time. He broke slow, made a middle move, but had to stop and start a few times. Blinkers go on for the first time and Emmanuel Esquivel, who is riding extremely well at this meet, gets the mount for the first time. I think the pace scenario favors a horse like him that can come from off the pace, and I think he’s capable of running a much faster race than he ran last time out. I’m not sure he’s good enough to beat these, but at 30-1 or better, I see him as a bomb that has more upside than most of the other runners in this race, regardless of the fact that he is still a maiden. I’ll be using him underneath in the vertical exotics. 

Of the other two short prices, Carbone is the one that I’ll be using on the multi-race bets and Maycocks Bay is the one that I’ll be taking a firm stand against. Perhaps Maycocks Bay can duplicate his big figure from his last race while facing a significantly bigger and better field. However, despite his rail post, I see that outcome as unlikely, and while I don’t think he’s going to go into the starting gate as the favorite, I don’t think his odds will be anywhere close to a number that I want to play him at. Carbone has paired his two Beyer Figures, so improvement in his third start is a much more likely outcome. There’s a chance that he will have some distance limitations, but if he does, I think they’ll be more apparent at nine furlongs. He’s drawn outside of some other speed, so Santana is going to have to make some decisions, but I think he’s got enough potential to make sure he’s covered on some tickets here. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.