Oaklawn Park Racing Preview (Arkansas Derby Day) – 3/30/24 – By Eric Solomon

The most anticipated day of the Oaklawn Park Meet is upon us, as the racing office has put together a fantastic 13 race card. The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby is the signature race of the meet, producing great horses such as American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, and Afleet Alex to name a few. This year’s race is a very competitive group of 11, which should send a few runners to Louisville in five short weeks. 

The Grade 3 Fantasy for three year old fillies, The Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile, and the $250K Matron Stakes will all support this tremendous card. First post today will be a little earlier, 12:05 (CT) and the Arkansas Derby is scheduled to go off at 6:47 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Arkansas Derby Day starts off with an optional $75K claiming/N2X allowance race for four year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. Ethereal Road (#1) scratched out of the Temperence Hill Stakes yesterday in favor of this spot, and I think that he stacks up much better against this field. He was a solid second at this level in his last start and he’s run two very competitive races on this oval during this meet. I think he like the local course and should be able to sit in the middle of the pack while U S Army (#2) and Pats Property (#4) are liking going at it on the front end. While it’s been a long time in between victories, his form continues to improve. I think he gets the breakthrough win in this spot. Life Is Hard (#6) has been sprinting most of the time over the last year while running some credible races at this level. He stretches out to a route on the dirt for the first time in 11 months. One of his two career victories came on this oval at this distance and he’s shown the ability to come up with big efforts from time to time. If he’s flying under the radar at or above his 6-1 morning line price, I’d be interested in using him,

Race 2: 

Arkansas breds will travel 1 1/16 miles in this maiden special weight contest. I think the inside runners have the edge in this race. I’ll make the second time starter, Turquoise Blue (#2) the top pick in this race. He debuted at six furlongs and stayed toward the back of the field. He stretches out to a route, while adding blinkers for the first time today. While Joe Sharp doesn’t have great numbers with horses stretching out, I do think this one will benefit from the added distance. His sire, Air Force Blue, gets 15% winners from his runners routing on the dirt for the first time. His dam never ran on dirt, but her first foal to race has won on all three surfaces at a distance up to nine furlongs. Burlsworth (#1) met a rocket a few weeks ago when making his second career start. He did move into open maiden special weight company for that race, which proved to be a significant bump up in class. He’s sprinted on a wet track in both career starts, but he should be racing on a fast track for the first time today. While I don’t love betting horses sired by Practical Joke when going two turns for the first time (only 8% winners) I don’t think that stat matters as much at the state bred level. Task (#3) has left himself too much work to do in his first three local starts, finishing second each time, but never threatening the winner. Horses sired by Race Day win 18% of the time when routing for the first time on the dirt. His dam was a sprinter who never went farther than seven furlongs. She’s still looking for her foal to win a race. He’s been competitive and if the odds gap widens between him and Burlsworth, I might upgrade him. However, he’s yet to look like a winner in the afternoons despite some credible tries. 

Race 3:

Three years old will sprint six furlongs in this open maiden special weight race. I’m looking to the outside stalls in this race, making Jester Sang (#9) the top pick. He was game in his debut, finishing 5th, about three lengths behind Coach Jimi D (#8). He tired a bit in the stretch, which isn’t uncommon for a horse on debut. He had a nice workout in between this start and his last race and I’m expecting him to be more competitive after getting that first start out of the way. Coach Jimi D came back from the layoff with a strong effort at this level three weeks ago. He put himself into a nice stalking position and came up a length short. He paired his last race Beyer, which was a race contested in August at Ellis. That was his first start in open maiden special weight company after running three times in restricted races in Kentucky. He makes a lot of sense in this race. Randy Morse has a pair of debut runners in this race, and of the two, I think Wants N Needs (#7) is more interesting. He has less workouts than his stablemate, but his sire Maclean’s Music, gets 16% winners from first time starters on dirt. Manny Esquivel rides a lot of races for Morse and he lands here as opposed to Texas Splurge (#4). This barn has been profitable with their debut runners, so they know to get them ready. He feels like a horse that could be overlooked at long odds in this race.

Race 4:

Time restricted $75K-$65K claimers will go one mile in this race, which starts and ends at the 1/16 pole at Oaklawn. Norm Casse looks to have righted the ship with Strava (#5). He had two miserable efforts in November at Churchill and here in January, before coming back with a strong effort to narrowly lose to Payne in an optional claiming/allowance race. He likely needed the November race and I think the January race at 1 3/16 miles was beyond his scope. The mile distance suits him well and he should be either setting pace or stalking the front in a race that isn’t loaded with early speed. Dash Attack (#3) is a horse that has earned over $616K on the racetrack, but his last three tires in stakes company have been a struggle. He was excellent four starts ago running a career top figure in an optional claiming/allowance race at Churchill. Since that effort, he’s been beaten by double digit lengths in each of those three tries. He’s a perfect 3-3 at this distance, but four of five career wins have come on off tracks. His career top figure in that Churchill race was his only win on a fast track. I’m definitely getting mixed signals, but I do think he’s worth using on some tickets. 

Race 5:

The Early Pick-5 ends and the Mid-Card Pick-5 begins with this maiden special weight contest for three year old fillies going one mile. I’m not going to try to beat Bonaqua (#2), shipping in from Santa Anita for Bob Baffert. She joined Muth on the flight to town and she gets to run in a race that is almost twice the purse of the maiden special weight races at Santa Anita. She was nailed on the wire at this distance last out after setting reasonable fractions. That was her first try around two turns, which as a daughter of Tonalist, is likely what she is going to do best. She’s run three races, all in the mid-upper 70’s Beyer Speed Figures. Her numbers are slowly creeping up and I think she’s a candidate to move forward in this race. I’ll eat chalk here and use her as a single on most of the multi-race plays. Who’s Ticket (#1) will be the backup pick for me in this race. She drew an outside post when facing both Happy Talk (#8) and Tap the Champagne (#3) at this level on the Rebel undercard last month. She was forwardly placed in that race, but faded late. I think she’s going to go to the front, and  Ithink Hernandez (riding the favorite) will let her do that. I haven’t seen evidence that she’s fast enough to beat the favorite, but I think she’s shown enough that she can finish ahead of the other two shorter prices, and maybe do a little more than that if the heavy favorite misfires. 

Race 6: 

The second of four Pick-4 wagers on the afternoon starts with this N1X allowance race for four year olds and up, going six furlongs. While I’ve been anxiously awaiting the return of Shopper’s Revenge (#1) and Clear the Air (#5) is coming off a monster effort on this oval, I’m not going to be using either in this race. I think this distance is too short for Shopper’s Revenge and this is meant as a set up race for a two-turn race here or in Kentucky for his next start. Clear the Air has two big efforts in his last three starts, but he’s failed to run them in consecutive races. He’s also moving up in class and facing a few horses that will push the tempo with him early on. I think Bourbon Bash (#4) is the one in this race. He had a rough trip as the favorite in allowance company last time out. He’s only 1-20 in his career, but a bit of that has been bad luck. Lukas gave him a little extra time after his last start and he hits the reset button here. I think he’ll get the proper setup and finally break through at this level today. Juilliard (#7) ran a huge race last time out with $75K-$65K N3L claimers. While that was a career top figure on a muddy course, he did show last year that he was able to match his then career best numbers in consecutive races, winning them both on this oval. This is a step up in class, but he might be getting good and catching some of his rivals at the right time. 

Race 7:

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this maiden special weight race. LIke the maiden race for fillies earlier in the card, there is likely going to be a short priced favorite from a power barn. Militant (#1) is a second starter coming out of a fast $125K-$100K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up a few weeks ago. He had a wide trip that day and finished a decent third and now he moves up in class (although he’s facing just three year olds here), gets post relief, and gets a major rider upgrade to Flavien Prat. All of the ingredients are there for a Brad Cox second time starter, yer, I’m still grasping at why this one debuted in a maiden claiming race. He didn’t show much early speed, so he does run the risk of being in a pocket behind horses, which would be a new experience for him on race day. This barn wins so many races, I can’t leave this one off my tickets entirely, but I do think there’s value in trying to beat him. I’m looking at Mo El Grande (#4) to pull the upset. Horses sired by Uncle Mo are winning 23% of their first dirt races over the last five years. This one has a pair of sprint races as a foundation, where he paired his Beyer figures while running behind a pair of runaway winners. I see him as a horse that is eligible to take a decent step forward in this race. Elko County (#5) ran in a very good maiden special weight race on the Risen Star undercard in New Orleans. He had trouble at the break, but he rallied well to get into 4th when beaten by Antiquarian and Cornishman. He drew another outside post when running at this level in nine furlong race, and found a little trouble once again. It was hard to tell exactly what happened because of where the incident took place, but his seam that Leparoux was going for, closed up and he had to steady. He wasn’t going to beat Native Land that day, but I do think with a clean run, he could have finished in the money. I like the rider upgrade to Brian Hernandez for this race and I see him as a candidate to move forward as well. Riyadh Moon (#3) was inexplicably bad two starts ago, but he rebounded nicely in that same race that Elko County is coming out of. He benefited from a good trip, but once the winner made his move, he was not able to keep pace. He ran twice in the slop and his last race was contested over a drying out track labeled good. This should be his first try on a fast track today.

Race 8:

A dozen older horses are trying to clear the N1X allowance condition in this 1 1/16 contest. I’m going to try to escape this race using only two runners. I think Media Mogul (#4) is an interesting contender in this race, stretching out to two turns for the first time since October. He broke his maiden at Remington in his second career start and faced winners for the first time going a mile there in the fall. He ran a good race to finish second and set, what was then, a career top Beyer Speed Figure. He shipped here and has finished in the money in three straight N2L allowance sprints. He had a little traffic trouble that might have prevented him from being the best version of himself last time out. He’s sired by Empire Maker out of a Tapit mare, so the added distance definitely makes sense from a pedigree standpoint. I think he can sit the right trip, and if Captivating Boy (#5) is too aggressive again, I think he’ll be the one that will pick up the pieces. Captivating Boy did run a huge race in his first start on traditional dirt and his first start at two turns. His trainer, William Morey, won 25% of his races in 2023, but is looking for his first score at this meet. He was improving with every start on synthetic courses at Golden Gate and Turfway. He shipped here and was running freely before getting caught by Heroic Move, who posted the strongest Beyer Speed Figure in a N1X allowance race at this meet. He has moved forward without regressing in every start, so I don’t see him taking a big step backward here. He should have things his own way up front again, so it’ll be up to Esquivel to ration his speed. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile:

The final Pick-5 and an All-Stakes Pick-4 begins here with the first graded stakes race of the afternoon. Jordan Blair has Midnight Rising (#4) is in great form right now. He cleared the N1X and N2X allowance conditions against decent fields in his first two local starts. His first six career races came on grass and synthetic and he had one win in that span. Since getting on the dirt, he’s turned into quite a runner. He has tactical speed that should keep him close to what should be a moderate pace. Blair is 1-27 with horses in stakes races in the last five years but I think this Mendelssohn gelding has the chance to be the best horse he’s trained so far. Frosted Grace (#7) is an eight year old runner with 10 wins in 45 career starts. He won with high priced claimers in his last start, which came at this distance on this oval. Flying P Stable retained ownership, but since transferred this horse to Michael Maker’s barn. This horse got very good around this time at this meet last year and went on to win the Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star back in May. His form has tailed off a bit, but he loves this oval and this distance. Maker knows how to keep his talented older horses going strong, so I’m expecting any drop off with the trainer change. 

Race 10, The $250K Matron Stakes:

While I think there are going to be a lot of eyes on the Grade 1 winner, Daddysruby (#8), I’m going to be playing against her. She beat a very average field to win the La Brea two starts ago. She came back last month in a California bred race, where she was flat, and finished third. She ships east for the first time and she finds herself in a race where there are other fillies and mares that can run with her early. I think she’s going to be have a hard time holding off Zeitlos (#6), who is one of my stronger opinions on this hearty card. She lost her jockey in her debut and since that race, she has never finished off the board. She has three straight wins, including a stakes score at this track and distance. I think she has the right running style to win this race and she runs for a barn excels with sprinters. She’s paired her first two Beyers on this course and could very well be sitting on a bigger effort today. Royal Spa (#7) is the backup for me in this spot. I thought she had a chance to beat Alva Star in the American Beauty Stakes in the slop on the Southwest undercard last month. However, her hopes were dashed with a bad break, which you can’t have when facing a horse of that caliber. There should be some pace to set up her late closing kick. While I see her as a horse that might prefer 6 ½ or 7 furlongs, she has two wins and a second place finish in three tries at this distance. I think others are a little faster, but there’s upside here.

Race 11, The Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes:

The final local prep race for the Kentucky Oaks feels like the toughest race on the card to handicap. There are a ton of question marks for many of the prime contenders, so I’ll take a chance and make Midshipman’s Dance (#3) my top pick at long odds in this race. I think this filly has some quality to her as she won her first two career starts, including a win in the Mockingbird Stakes at six furlongs. She had a tough assignment, drawing post 10 for her first try at two turns. She covered more ground than anyone else in that field, but was still battling gamely to finish 5th, beaten a little more than four lengths. She draws a more advantageous post today, while Lemon Muffin (#11), who beat her last time, is going to have to work out a trip from that post. I think she’s a candidate to move forward in this race. My Mane Squeeze (#1) has been dominating New York bred company on the NYRA circuit, but now she’s going to be asked to try two turns for the first time. With $750K on the line, it’s likely worth making the trip, as opposed to running in the $200K Gazelle Stakes next week at home. She has good early speed and the first foal to race from this dam has two wins at nine furlongs on the Aqueduct oval. She’s getting a definitive class test, but she figures to be tough in this race. Val Brinkerhoff ships Where’s My Ring (#5) in from California after finishing second to Kinza in the Santa Ysabel Stakes there three weeks ago. This is another move that makes sense, as she runs for $750K here, instead of $300K in the Santa Anita Oaks next weekend. She also can avoid facing Baffert’s Kinza, who was five lengths better than her. She is still a maiden, but she has run in three stakes races and her last two efforts have been solid. Lemon Muffin was very good in the Honeybee when making her first start at two turns. She’s worked out three times since that race for Lukas, so fitness is not going to be an issue. She’s going to need to work out a trip from a difficult post in this race though. She’s facing a deeper field as well. I do see upside with her though and if she can figure out a way to avoid serious ground loss, she could definitely pull this off. 

Race 12, The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby:

I covered this race in depth on the ITM Blog, with a horse by horse analysis. The link for that is located below. The quick and dirty version of that has me siding with Timberlake (#2) on top. Brad Cox won this race with Angel of Empire last year and I think this Grade 1 winner comes into this race primed to run a career top effort. Liberal Arts (#5) is a longer priced runner that ran well in defeat in the Southwest Stakes in his last start. While he couldn’t keep up with Mystik Dan (#9) that day, he still ran on well in the late stages. Medina’s horses tend to improve with each start off that layoff and I think he’s sitting on a bigger effort. Mystik Dan is a total wild card in this race. He was brilliant when winning the Southwest and McPeek was likely wise to give him a little extra time coming into this spot. He was given a brilliant ride that day, and he’ll likely need that same thing again with this talented group. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2024-kentucky-derby-the-grade-1-arkansas-derby-by-eric-solomon/

Race 13:

The nightcap on this marathon program is a N1X allowance race at one mile for fillies and mares,  four years old and up. Sister Kisses (#2) will try to rebound from a dull effort at this level in a sprint last out. She was very good in her two previous starts here and she’s bred to be able to handle two turns. She’s a full sibling to Sharapova, who broke her maiden in her third career start, which was her first route race. She would go on to win the Harry Henson Stakes at one mile at Sunland. She’s drawn well in a wide open field and I think she makes a lot of sense at a decent price in this race. Blame Day (#4) has cleared this condition on lesser circuits, so she remains eligible for the N1X level here. Her form has tailed off a bit, but I think a move to two turns can wake her up. She broke her maiden at the Fair Grounds going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt last winter. Thestral (#10) is a factor in this race. She ran a huge speed figure two starts back in the slop and then bounced when coming here two weeks later. She was given a little more time in between starts and her efforts three and four starts back would likely put her right in the mix with this group. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 102/452 (22.6%, $1,000.00, $2.21 ROI)