Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – By Eric Solomon

A competitive field of 10 has been assembled for the signature race of the Oaklawn Park Meet. Three horses have pulled off the Arkansas Derby/Kentucky Derby double, with Sunny’s Halo doing it in 1983, Smarty Jones doing it in 2004, and American Pharoah doing it in 2015, en route to securing the first Triple Crown since 1978. Last year’s winner, Angel of Empire, went on to finish a game third in the Kentucky Derby. 

The winner of the Rebel Stakes, Timberlake, will square off against the winner of the Southwest Stakes, Mystik Dan. However, the morning line favorite is Muth, shipping in from Southern California for Bob Baffert. He’s not eligible for Derby points, but this could be a race that solidifies him as a serious player in the Preakness. This race is scheduled to go off as the 12th race of the day, at 6:47 (CT).

Oaklawn Park, Saturday 4/1/23, Race 12: The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby

200 Total Derby Points (100/50/25/15/10)

1 – Will Take It (50-1 ML): He seemingly took a big step forward out of nowhere last time out. He was making his third career start, and he just missed by a nose in a maiden special weight going 1 1/16 miles. He went off at 42-1 that day, so his effort was definitely unexpected. He’s the lone maiden in this ten horse field and I don’t see him taking another big step forward at this level today. 

2 – Timberlake (9-5 ML, 17-2 Circa): I thought he could have been vulnerable as the heavy favorite in the Rebel Stakes when he made his three year old debut. However, Cristian Torres made a decisive four wide bid, which freed him up from traffic, and he came home an easy two length winner, finishing in front of Common Defense who covered much less ground. He was 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, eight lengths behind Fierceness and two lengths behind Muth, who he’ll have to tackle today. He has inside position on his rival today in a race with less early speed. I think Prat can sit just behind Time for Truth and Muth, and make the same kind of run he did in the Rebel. Cox won 28% of his races in 2023, but his numbers with horses coming off longer layoffs were only 18% in that time span. His numbers jump up to 31% with runners in their second starts off those layoffs. Looking at the competition in the Rebel, Timberlake likely didn’t need to be fully primed for that effort. He’s earned a spot in the gate for the Derby, and now he’s looking to add a two-turn Grade 1 stakes win to his resume. I think he’s primed to run a big race today, which should stamp him as one of the prime contenders for the Kentucky Derby in five weeks. 

3 – Dimatic (20-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): He’s one of three runners from the Asmussen barn, looking to earn a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. He broke his maiden in his third career start on a sloppy course on the Southwest undercard at the beginning of February. He came back three weeks later and shot his shot in the Rebel. He was in the middle of a tight pack early on, but he was never really a factor in that race, finishing a little more than seven lengths behind Timberlake. While his speed figures continue to slowly improve, I don’t see him stepping up enough to beat this field today. 

4 – Time For Truth (20-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): He was a splashy maiden winner for Ron Moquett, scoring impressively on debut at the end of December. This barn doesn’t typically have them fully cranked for their debuts, so I thought his effort was extra impressive. He came back to run second to Valentine Candy in the Ozark Stakes in his second career start. Moquett opted to send this son of Omaha Beach around two turns for the first time in allowance company in his most recent start, holding on to win by a length and a half. That was probably wise to move on to Plan B after drawing post 13 for the Rebel Stakes. He took the lead with authority at the top of the lane, but he did look like he was tiring in the final 1/16 of a mile. While he’s bred to be effective at two turns on the dirt, I wonder if he’s going to be able to continue to find enough energy at nine furlongs to beat some of the two-turn, graded stakes winners in this race. 

5 – Liberal Arts (15-1 ML, 70-1 Circa): Tyler Gaffalione and Cristian Torres are swapping mounts with Torres off this Arrogate colt and on Dimatic, the horse that Gaffalione rode in the Rebel Stakes last out. Robert Medina opted to sit out the Rebel and wait for this race for his next start. He had a good two year old foundation, running five times and winning the Grade 3 Street Sense in the slop in his two year old finale. He was third in the Southwest, 8 ¼ lengths behind Mystik Dan. He’s never finished off the board in all six career starts. I liked the way he was moving in the late stages of the Southwest. He wasn’t keeping pace with Mystik Dan, but he still ran a career top speed figure in defeat. He tucked in behind Mystik Dan on the first turn and followed him into the second turn. Torres tipped out with him while Hernandez stayed inside, which seemed to be the beat part of track that day, and was able to slide through and power home. Medina doesn’t have great numbers first off the layoff, but his horses typically take a decent step forward second off the bench. In fact, in the last five years, Medina has one winner with a horse making their first start after a 3-6 month layoff (1-47, 2%). His numbers go up to 9% with horses second off the layoff and 16% with runners in their third start back. This seems like an intentional design to have this one fully cranked to fire his best race in the Derby, while still showing improvement here. He’s been pointing toward this race and working well at the Thoroughbred Training Center in Kentucky. Of the longer priced horses in this race, I think he has the best shot.

6 – Informed Patriot (30-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): After finishing third to the recent winner of the Louisiana Derby, Catching Freedom, in the Smarty Jones, Asmussen decided to send this horse to New Mexico for the Sunland Park Derby last month. He was well-backed at the windows, but he was no match for Stronghold, who figures to be a contender in the Santa Anita Derby next week. There was no visible excuse for running so poorly in that race, other than maybe not caring for the surface. He was third behind Liberal Arts in the Street Sense and while that one has shown signs of growth, I haven’t seen that from this Hard Spun colt up to this point. 

7 – Muth (8-5 ML): Bob Baffert is a mainstay in these three year old races at Oaklawn Park, but he’s only sent one horse here this season, and that was Wynstock, who finished last in the Southwest Stakes last month. Muth is a lot higher in the pecking order in Baffert’s three year old stable, but things have not exactly gone as planned this winter for his top prospects. This son of Good Magic looked exceptional when breaking his maiden at Santa Anita last summer. He was second to his stablemate, Prince of Monaco, in the Best Pal, but he turned things around with a Grade 1 victory in the American Pharoah in October. He looked to bready to engage in a duel with Fierceness at the top of the stretch in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he came up empty in the final furlong, finishing six lengths behind the two year old champion. The 95 Beyer Muth put him that afternoon would have likely been good enough to win many of the recent runnings of the Juvenile, but Fierceness was that good on that day. From a visual standpoint, I would have liked to have seen this colt, which cost $2,000,000, not quit so easily when he locked up with Fierceness. He made his first start as a three year old in the Grade 3 San Vicente, going seven furlongs at the beginning of January. He was an easy winner that day, who was never really challenged. He’s been working consistently since then, and his work pattern suggested that he was looking to go in the San Felipe at the beginning of the month, a race that his stablemate, Nysos, had also been targeting. His work on 2/25 was not quite up to Baffert’s standard. Since then, he’s worked three times, going six furlongs each time, a move that Baffert likes to do to try to increase stamina. He’s making his first start in nearly three months and he’s being asked to go a longer distance than he ever has before. Juan Hernandez has been his regular rider and he’ll make his 2024 Oaklawn debut riding this one. Perhaps it’s a fool’s errand to try to beat some of these Baffert runners, but this current pattern doesn’t strike me as a typical Baffert move going into a race like this. He could be using this spot to get him more fit for the Preakness. I’m going to side with some of the others here. 

8 – Just Steel (15-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): He’ll be the only runner to compete in all four Derby Points races at Oaklawn, and he’ll do so with a new rider, as Keith Asmussen will ride him instead of any of the three runners from his father’s barn. He drew a wide post in the Rebel and he broke a beat slow that afternoon. He ended up covering a ton of ground, going five wide on both turns, and being stuck out in the middle of the racecourse all the way down the backstretch. He ended up finishing 7th, beaten ten lengths that day in a race where I think it’s fair to draw a line through. He moves in three spots in the starting gate today, and gets a race that has less early speed on paper than his last three races. At the end of the day, I think he’s going to be more effective in longer one turn races, and as much as I enjoy seeing D. Wayne Lukas with a starter in the Kentucky Derby, I think he’d be much more competitive in the Pat Day Mile. 

9 – Mystik Dan (5-2 ML, 25-1 Circa): This son of Goldencents has been a bit of a tricky horse to figure out. He ran a monster race going 5 ½ furlongs at Churchill in his second career start when he broke his maiden. McPeek brought him back two short weeks later in an allowance race at a one turn mile where he chased a fast pace and wilted to fifth. He ran an okay race in the Smarty Jones to be 5th behind Catching Freedom. His last start was in the Southwest Stakes, where he was largely overlooked by bettors, going off at 11-1. Brian Hernandez changed tactics, and decided to sit off what was a fast pace. He maneuvered from the nine hole to the rail when going into the first turn and he was able to save all the ground once again with a savvy ride up the rail on the second turn. He powered home as a much the best winner, drawing off to win by eight lengths, while earning the best Beyer Speed Figure in a Derby Prep race this year, 101. Now the question is if he can do it again. McPeek opted not to run him in the Rebel, perhaps learning from bringing him back a little too quickly this fall at Churchill. He clearly has a new dimension to his game and that versatility is appealing. He’s had five workouts at the Fair Grounds after his last start, and he seems to be doing very well. Brian Hernandez has been very sharp in limited opportunities on this course, so I expect another crafty ride. Whether he’s good enough or not is another question. I think he’s worth using in this race. 

10 – Imperial Gun (30-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): The third Asmussen runner broke his maiden in his second career start, winning handily on New Year’s Eve, finishing five lengths better than a nice horse in Linebacker. He was sent off at 4-5 in allowance company on the Rebel undercard and he laid an egg in the first race of the afternoon that day. He finished a non-threatening 4th place, never getting close to Seize the Grey. That one just ran third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway on Tapeta.  He’s another one with no visible excuse for his recent poor effort, so he becomes a hard horse for me to endorse in this spot.

The Verdict: 2-5-9

I see both North American Derby Preps this week as having three prime contenders, a few fringe horses, and then some horses that feel like they are way overmatched. Trying to determine which fringe horses could step up and which contenders might be overhyped will be my strategy to hopefully make a profit on these races. 

I see this as a great spot for Timberlake. I think he’s well drawn while coming off a useful local prep to start his season. Brad Cox doesn’t usually have his runners fully cranked when coming off the bench, but he was too good for the Rebel field. I expect him to take a step forward in this race today. He feels like the horse to beat.

Of the horses that are on the fringe, I think Liberal Arts is the most interesting. He made his season debut in the Southwest Stakes last month, where he caught a sloppy course. Mystik Dan beat him to a spot going into the first turn and instead of following his move along the rail, Cristian Torres opted to go wide on the turn, which was not the place to be on that day. There was no guarantee Brian Hernandez was going to be able to scrape the paint and get Mystik Dan through, so I understand Torres’ decision. I don’t think Liberal Arts was going to beat Mystik Dan in that race, but I do think he would have been closer than eight lengths behind the winner. Robert Medina is another trainer that doesn’t win a ton of races with horses coming off layoffs, but his numbers jump up dramatically in his runners’ second starts off the bench. He’s an Arrogate colt that has steadily improved throughout his career thus far and I think he’ll continue to get better. I don’t think he’s going to off at 15-1, but he’s definitely a horse that I could play to win at 8-1 or better. 

Mystik Dan is the wild card to me in this race. My initial thought after watching the Southwest Stakes was that I would be playing against him in his next start. However, his change in tactics last out gives him a level of versatility that could certainly serve him well. McPeek brought him back quickly after a monster maiden score in November. I think he learned that this horse tends to need a little more time in between starts, so I like that he skipped the Rebel in favor of this race. His loss in the Smarty Jones looks better after watching Catching Freedom do his thing in his last two starts at the Fair Grounds. He did get a dream run on a sloppy course last time out, so how he responds to adversity on a different surface is going to be telling. Ultimately, I feel 5-2 is a little too short for me, but if his odds float upward of 4-1, I’d be more interested in taking that chance.

Muth is the runner that I see as being overrated in this race. He’s a solid horse that hasn’t seemed  to progress a ton as a two year old. He won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes in October, but he didn’t beat much in that race. He looked like he was going to storm past Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup, but he stalled and barely held on to second on a course that was hard for closers to make up ground on. His only start of the year came early in January in a seven furlong race against an overmatched field. Baffert is asking him to face better horses, while shipping for the first time and going longer than he ever has before. If anyone can get it done, it’s him, but my gut is telling me that there are others that will be finishing stronger in this race. This race also feels like an intentional prep for the Preakness, so even though there’s a huge pot of money on the table, others might be more motivated to have their horses set to fire their A race at this moment.

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.