Parx Analysis for Monday, February 15

Playing Parx today? Check out today’s piece by Andrew Rdensinski

Parx 2/15/21

Race 1- 5 ½ Furlongs MCL25K

Picks- 3-6-1

  • # 3 Run Laura Run seems to be the controlling early speed even with others in this field with tendencies to send early. Ruben will make sure he can get the lead on this filly and the class drop should be beneficial when it comes to fighting for the lead. I think if she controls the pace of the race, it will be her race to win. #6 Outline is the first time starter in the field and she is running for very solid connections. Michael Pino is 15% with FTS but doesn’t usually fire in MCL races for the first time out. This filly attracts the top jockey who has had a cold start to the 2021 campaign after winning the jockey title here at Parx in 2020. I think she will take to the track well if she breaks cleanly. #1 B B’s Rocket improved a ton first time out with blinkers and returns today for the same level and a slight cut back in distance with blinkers again. I think she should be well rested and these connections win at 16% with a positive ROI.

 

Race 2- 1 1/16th Mile CLM5000N1Y

 

Picks- 2-10-1

  •  #2 Anissa is a proven veteran at this level and fights each time out. Mychel Sanchez stays as the jockey and she has been running consistently as of late. However, I think she is still not good enough to win but she will hit the board. She seems to be really one paced these days and sometimes loses interest but when Sanchez rides her he gets the most out of her which I like today. #10 Theodosia has an outside chance in here and could be sent early due to post and she has a little bit of early pace in her run style. Jorge Diaz is a solid young trainer in the Mid Atlantic circuit and he gave this 6yo Mare some time off during the early winter and returns her here for a lower level and I think that the rest will be beneficial. #1 Jumpin Jett is a consistent runner. This horse just left the Jorge Diaz barn after Scott Lake claimed her. Lake is really good off the claim and is a seasoned vet in this angle. Jumpin Jett is  also a seasoned vet and I think that the field is weak enough that the barn switch could be all she needs to win.

Race 3- 7F CLM7500N1Y

Picks- 6-4-9

  • #4 Better Yet is one of my best bets of the whole card. M3 Racing stable is one of the brightest ownership groups in the business and this horse’s last race was a huge improvement on the class drop. I think if she duplicates that previous outing, then I don’t see how she can be beat. #4 Miss Star Lo could and should go to the lead early on today. Geraldo Milan is very aggressive and if he can get the lead and get her comfortable like he did 2 races ago it will be hard for her to be caught. #9 Aussie Mist was just claimed last time out off Pat Farro and is in for my friends at Longball and Danny Velazquez. Danny has been lights out off the claim over the past two years and Aussie Mist has back class that can win here. She also could go to the lead and could be hard to catch.

Race 4- 6 F CLM 7500N2L

Picks- 9-7-3

  • #9 Shandian has switched to the Juan Carlos Guerrero barn but was running for Rudy Rodriguez. Shandian has a lot of back class compared to most in this field and has the ability to go to the lead early. The barn switch is a plus at Parx and the fact Jamie Rodriguez returns today is a good sign after just missing last time out. I think if he is game again today it will be hard for him to let someone past down the stretch. #7 No Fly Zone had the worst trip in recent memory last time out and still managed to get 2nd. He stumbled out of the gate and then was bumped badly at the 7/16th pole and still almost won. Now he returns to the same level and should hopefully get a cleaner trip today and if he does he should win. #3 Grays the Bar is a Graydar gelding who doesn’t have much class in his form but has improved since leaving the Scott Lake barn and joining the Lou Linder barn. I think there is room for improvement here in the class drop and the apprentice gives less weight which could be all that he needs.

Race 5- 1M 70 yards MSW

Picks- 7-3-4

  • #7 Fole’s Nation is stepping up in class but this is a weak MSW field. His beyers blow this field away and he was running at Laurel against tougher even though it was for a 40k tag. 2nd time lasix and probably a mid pack run combined with a red hot Navin Mangalee is why I am all over this gelding today. #3 Myhessexpress is in for John Kirby and Jeremy Laprida. This horse should be sent early and this field doesn’t have much of an early pace picture here so it could be his lead to have. If that is the case I think Laprida will be hard to get by on this horse and he could win. #4 Pylon struggled against MSW company at Penn National in his debut but returns to Parx for his second tart and seems to be working better than he ran at Penn. Mychel Sanchez gets the mount so I expect improvement.

Race 6- 5 ½ F OC20K/SAL16K

Picks- 5-1-2

  • #5 Shane’s Jewel is in great form currently and is second off the layoff but won his return and it was a huge bounce back in form off the race prior to the layoff. I think 2nd time out he will be even stronger. #1 Fix Me a Sandwich is the speed of the speed but tends to fold late which is why he isn’t my top choice. However, if he can set easy fractions it could be hard to run him down. #2 Tomater Gator is a horse who could pick up the pieces if the pace falls apart. He will be sitting closer than usual since he will have to send in order to get position. If he can sit on the rail and make one run off the pace then I think he will have a shot here to make some noise.

Race 7- 6F CLM7500N4L

Picks- 5-2-10

  • #5 Inspiring Justice has been on fire the past two starts since Navin Mangalee has taken over the riding duties. Something must have clicked with this gelding because the last two races he got the lead and never looked back with speed left in the tank. I think today can be the same result. #2 Otis Otis Otis also has speed but a little less recent talent. However, the last win Otis Otis Otis has had was off the pace and in the mud which could be the surface today with scheduled rain in the forecast. I think if the #5 doesn’t show up that Otis Otis Otis could have a real shot here. #10 Jump Shot is in for Halem Lee and Silvestre Gonzalez. This horse is another horse looking for 3 in a row and is showing a great turn of form recently. If he can stalk from the outside post and pressure the pace setters early on, he could draw off like his last start and win here. The post is the main issue in these sprints.

Race 8- 1M 70 yards ALW8000S

Picks- 12-7-10

  • #12 Seat of honor is in for Tzortzakis who doesn’t have many horses currently it seems but has this 8yo Gelding and is in good form. He is coming in off a mile and a half victory in which he won going away in hand for the same level. Now he cuts back a tad but had to break from the 12 hole which can be an issue. Angel Castillo is having some of the best years of his long career currently so I think he can get this horse comfortable early on in order for him to make a run for the lead late. #7 Town Jak is looking for 3 in a row here and 2 in a row at this level. Frankie returns today on this horse after riding him from December to early January. He should be sitting mid pack waiting for the pace to tire. I think he has a shot here to win but if not a good chance underneath at a solid price. #10 Monteleone is another solid price here for an underneath price with a shot at it all. Roberto Rosado doesn’t ride as often these days but still can outride some of these younger jockeys to this day so don’t let the 4% win percentage fool you. This horse is coming off of an 81 beyer in which he just missed late and I think today he will improve too.

Race 9- 1 M 70 yards ALW41K N1X

Picks- 10-6-2

  • #10 Magic Michael is going for 4 in a row here for red hot connections of the Jamie Ness barn. His beyers keep improving and he has just been better than the fields he has been facing. I think today will be the same situation. #6 Jerome Avenue will get a lot of money here. However, I think he is a hanger and needs everything to go his way in order to win and personally I don’t see that happening today. Yet, with that being said his early run style will keep him in the race and Ruben Silvera can get the most out of him. I think he will finish top 3 but to win he will need to take a step forward. #2 Star Sign will be closing and in a field with somewhat a strong pace scenario in my eyes, I think Anthony Salgado could be flying late down the stretch to pick up some of the pieces. 3/1 is short for me but if he drifts up to 5/1 range then I might have to bet him.

Race 10- 6 F OC32K N2X

Picks- 7-6-2

  • #7 Chub Wagon is going for 3 in a row and looking to stay undefeated. This filly seems to be legit for the mid to high level races but mostly the starter stake and maybe G3 company in the long term. She should get the lead early from the outside post and could just run away with this. The fact she is 3/1 ML is beyond me and I think she might be up there in my best bets of the day. #6 Madam Meena is in for Jamie Ness and has faced stakes company before and beaten them. Granted that stakes company was restricted but it is still better than this field. She loves Parx as 5 of her 7 wins have come here. I think she needs the lead to win and I don’t think she gets that today but should be good enough to still have a shot. #2 Decoupage is the horse who I think will clean up the pieces if the pace falls apart. I know it seems like this is my strategy to every race but this race it really seems like a pace collapse could happen. Jamie Ness also trains this horse and puts Ruben Silvera his go to jockey on her too. All these are good signs and makes her a must include in horizontals and vertical wagering.

Race 11- 7 Furlongs CLM5000N1Y

Picks- 11-1-5

This nightcap is very below average as only two horses seem to have a legitimate shot to win. #11 Rings of Jupiter is one of them. 8/1 ML is very intriguing here and I think that 7F is his go to distance even though she has yet to win on it in 6 starts. Laprida also takes the mount for the first time and that to me is an upgrade as Laprida shines in these type of races. The outside post is an issue but I think the odds on him are hard to pass. #1 These Blues will be the favorite come post time as he is the best in form. He is dropping in from Starter Allowance company in which he finished 2nd. I think that effort wins today’s race easily and he could be hard to beat. #5 Adulation is my longshot play of the day. Based on recent form this horse might not finish the race. But if you can forgive those bad starts and go back to the form he had in the summer where he showed some life and motivation to win then how can you not like the price you are getting here. If the track is muddy or sloppy which I expect that also plays in her favor as she has 4 seconds out of 9 starts on the wet surface. Edwin Rivera gets aboard and can be aggressive which might be what he needs to get focused.

Leave a Reply

Further reading

Japan Racing Recap

Rob Reid Jr and I recap last weekends two big dirt races in Japan.
Will we see La Perouse or Cafe Pharoah in the US soon?  We discuss that and more!