Hello there, and welcome back to another edition of Presque Isle Downs handicapping. There’s a lot for even casual fan to follow in the depths of this Presque Isle meet, with great racing being a given and there’s even a tight battle for the lead in both trainer and jockey standings. Let’s get this week started right with this Monday card.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 1 mile 70 yards, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
I really like the race Alexander K (#2) and Rivage (#4) come out of, though both the first and second place finishers came out of it and ran poorly in their next starts. However, there isn’t much to see in terms of form for most of this six-horse field. Faaz (#3) might be the best play between the shorter favorites and the longshots, working 4 furlongs in 47.2 seconds, lightning quick when compared to his compatriots in this race. He also had a start over 6 furlongs, a good workout to prep for this spot. I expect the #2 and #4 to fire, but they could be very short prices and their works don’t impress me.
Race 1 selections:3-4-2
RACE 2 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 3:57
It seems almost a given that American Surfer (#3) is next in line to break her maiden after running behind a horse named Violenta in her last two starts, including a second place finish in Violenta’s maiden-breaking effort. It’s very possible that Jenadriyah (#4) could take the next step here as well, coming out of the same company as the #3, but I’ll opt to fade her to third for first-time starter Elmigdar (#5). I’m afraid this horse will take heavy money, being a first-timer out of the lauded stallion Curlin, but this horse turned a 36.4 second work over 3 furlongs and could make her first effort a winning one, worth the inclusion here.
Race 2 selections:3-5-4
RACE 3 – 1 mile 70 yards, Starter Optional Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 4:24
Don’t Tell Kelly (#3) is worth the second and third look in this race, after looking at Murry Rojas and his percentages bringing in his turf runners to synthetic. When changing a horse from turf to tapeta for the first time, he’s got a 20% win rate and a 70% rate running in the money. This horse is a must-have, especially with Antonio Gallardo (the meet’s second-place rider, behind only by two wins) in the irons. However, one cannot simply ignore 7-5 morning line favorite La Girvina (#1), getting familiar jockey Scott Spieth in the saddle once again. This horse has 4 wins from 5 starts at this distance, and went on a tear last year from June to September, winning 5 straight races over the Erie tapeta.
Race 3 selections:3-1
RACE 4 – 6 ½ furlongs, Starter Optional Claiming $13,000 Post Time: 4:51
It’s very possible this race is decided at the break due to the amount of front-end speed in the race. I don’t like Half Birthday (#5) in this spot due to the class raise, as I think she’ll struggle and isn’t worth the 5-2 morning line, though I go against the red-hot Scooter Davis barn and Gallardo’s riding at my own risk. If Time For An Angel (#7) can figure out how to break well again like she did last year, she’s an easy bet for me against this field. There is tactical speed in No Tappin Out (#4) that could serve her well should the wheels come off up front. My Janet (#2) is also interesting on the cutback, but sometimes I fear these cutbacks can turn into paid workouts with the target race being a longer run in a different spot. I’d be more interested in her next time out.
Race 4 selections:7-4-2-5
RACE 5 – Maiden Claiming $15,000 Post Time: 5:18
I can’t ignore Scooter Davis forever, and he brings in a 4-year-old first time starter who’s been burning up the workout sheet named Chalant (#6). Her sire, Echo Town, has a 19% win rate with first-time starters and also boasts above-average rates with his runners on synthetic tracks as well, which bodes favorably for this horse, who also gets Gallardo aboard. I have good reason to think Randall Russel will get Tworly Bluebell (#4) ready to run her best race, especially considering the barn’s record with horses in their second start since layoff. She’s Lit (#1) slots into third because Gaddiel Martinez, leading rider at Presque Isle, climbs in the irons for the first time.
Race 5 selections:6-4-1
RACE 6 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Post Time: 5:45
Naked Eye (#3) catches mine as a horse that should be able to compete with the two obvious picks in this race, Thankfulness (IRE) (#2) from Miguel Clement’s barn and Alluring Beauty (#4) from Riley Mott’s stable. I’ll put Alluring Beauty over Thankfulness based on the #4’s record over this distance, a solid two second-place finishes in two starts.
Race 6 selections:3-4-2
RACE 7 – 6 furlongs, Starter Optional Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 6:12
This state-bred restricted optional claimer is bursting with talent and good recent form. Hector (#5) at 8-1 is a head-scratcher for me, as I can’t understand why he’d be knocked so hard for being a good front-end type coming out of the Ron Potts barn and paired up with his winning jockey from two races ago, Scott Spieth. Shadow Factor (#1) is interesting for similar reasons as Villa-Gomez and Spieth swap mounts here after Villa-Gomez won on the #1 two starts ago. He drops from open $40k company to this state-restricted spot, and these kinds of swaps always have a way of catching up with the riders on the track, which is the other reason why I expect the fight for the win to come down to these two. Justice Is Sweet (#8) is one I want to watch for third, after a shocking 34.2 second work over 3 furlongs. If he comes into this race like that and sustains it, the rest of the field is in trouble.
Race 7 selections:5-1-8
RACE 8 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 6:39
A tough claiming race to close the card out. I have higher expectations for Toomuchaintenough (#7) in his second start back from layoff, especially when dropping in claiming tag from $6,250 to here. Disco Cents (#5) is 6-for-8 in the money at this distance, earning the 5-2 morning line favoritism, but I think this horse might be a step slower if the #7 runs his best race. Midnight Ambition (#6) returns to Presque Isle with Anthony Farrior as the conditioner, and he has a 20% win rate turning back route horses into these sprints. I’m very interested in what this horse does with less ground.
Race 8 selections:7-5-6
This could be Scooter Davis’s opportunity to wrest control of the trainer standings from Kevin Rice, who has no entrees on the Monday card. The two are separated at the top by only one win. The same goes for Antonio Gallardo, who is behind Gaddiel Martinez by only two wins, with Israel Rodriguez only eight wins off the lead. Stay tuned, because more Presque Isle Downs racing will be coming this way tomorrow. Don’t miss it!
