Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – By Eric Solomon

Bad weather in the Lexington area forced the postponement of this Grade 1 contest from Saturday, where this race shared the spotlight with the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, to Tuesday, where it will be a stand alone feature. Seven runners are entered in the final 200 Point Race. Grade 1 winners East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick headline this seven horse race which feels pretty wide open. While this race has produced some top quality racehorses over the years, you have to go back to 1991 to find the last Blue Grass winner that also won the Kentucky Derby (Strike the Gold). In recent years, Sierra Leone and Good Magic were close, but second best on Derby Day. Essential Quality won this race in 2021 and he would go on to win the Belmont after finishing 4th in the Derby (moved up to 3rd upon the disqualification of Medina Spirit later that year). Post time for this Grade 1 event is set for 5:52 PM (ET).

Keeneland, Tuesday 4/8/25, Race 10: The G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)

1 – River Thames (5-2 ML): The lukewarm morning line favorite comes into this race after three strong efforts to start his career. He took an undefeated record into the Fountain of Youth where he took the lead at the top of the stretch, but was nailed on the wire by Sovereignty. He has the inside track to making the early lead, but Owen Almighty and East Avenue are likely going to be hunting the front as well. East Avenue is the bigger threat in my eyes because in his last two races where he didn’t make the lead, he’s been a shell of himself. Irad Ortiz is going to have to make some decisions with this one, because I’m not sure conceding the rail is going to be the strategy that pays off for him. I think there could be an aggressive battle for the lead in this race and I’m not certain that he’s going to continue to improve while the races get longer. I’m going to try to beat him in this spot. 

2 – Render Judgment (20-1 ML): Brian Hernandez rides first call for Ken McPeek and the fact that he’s riding Burnham Square instead of this Blame colt, tells me everything I need to know about his chances in this race. After breaking his maiden, he lost his last four starts in Derby Points races by 8 ½, 9 ½ , 19 ¼, and 7 ¾ lengths. He did get some points when finishing second to American Promise in the Virginia Derby last month, but he was nowhere close to the winner that day. Sheldon Russell rode him at Colonial and he’ll get the return call today. However, I don’t see him as a contender in this one. 

3 – Burnham Square (9-2 ML): Ian Wilkes opted to bypass the Florida Derby with this Liam’s Map colt after running in both the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. He had a stronger pace to chase after when running in the Holy Bull where he was the winner. The pace was more moderate in this Fountain of Youth and his performance was a little flat. I think the ingredients for a strong pace are there, which does favor him. Brian Hernandez takes the mount for the first time after Edgard Zayas was aboard for all three starts in Florida. He doesn’t always get there, but he’s never run a bad race. He had a strong work over the main track at Churchill last week, telling me that he’s ready to fire his best shot in this race. He’s the pick for me in this race. 

4 – Owen Almighty (3-1 ML): While everyone else in this field is in need of some points, this Speightstown colt rode the rail on a speed favoring track at Tampa to win the Tampa Bay Derby and securing 50 points toward entry in the Derby. This allows Jose Ortiz and Brian Lynch to try some different tactics. I think East Avenue has to send for the lead and I’m not sure Irad Ortiz is going to concede the rail with River Thames. I can see them trying to stalk the pace while keeping him a close third, in a pocket behind the top two. He tried that in the Iroquois last year and finished second behind Jonathan’s Way, who did the heavy lifting up front. He has been at his best when setting the tempo though, so I’m not sure that a change of tactics is going to lead to him firing his best shot. He’s never run a bad race, so he’s definitely an exotics play for me in this spot, but I’m not sure he’s good enough to win this race. 

5 – East Avenue (3-1 ML): To me, he’s the biggest question mark in this race. On the plus side, he was excellent when winning the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity here in the fall. He drew the rail for the Breeders’ Cup, which definitely suited the front-running race he wanted to run, but a bad start and a rough trip foiled his bid to become the two year champion. He made his first start of 2025 in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes. Magnitude ran off the screen that day and some of the other runners from that race came back with solid efforts in subsequent starts. He tried stalking the pace that day and he wasn’t interested, folding up and finishing almost 23 lengths behind the winner. He was working well at the Fair Grounds and he drilled a sharp 47 flat work over this course last week. Blinkers are going on for the first and with Gaffalione being sidelined, Luan Machado takes the mount. When riders were named for this race earlier in the week, options were limited with major races in New York, California, and Dubai on Saturday. While Machado is a strong rider, he might not have been the first choice for Walsh in this race, seeing as how there are likely more seasoned riders that would have been available now. He needs to make the lead in this race, and while I can see Jose Ortiz conceding the lead on Owen Almighty, I’m not sure Irad Ortiz is going to oblige with River Thames, who has the rail (especially if we’re seeing front end speed have success in the first few days of racing). He wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins, but after losing his last two races by a combined 36 lengths, I’m not sure he’s mentally in the right space to win this race. 

6 – Chancer McPatrick (7-2 ML): I’ve been waiting for this son of McKinzie to prove he’s going to be as effective at two turns as he’s been at one turn. He was good when winning the Grade 1 Hopeful over Ferocious and he was even better when winning the Grade 1 Champagne in October. His pedigree suggests that shouldn’t be an issue as Bernardini is the dam sire. However, his efforts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Tampa Bay Derby have left a little to be desired. The pace scenario in the Breeders’ Cup changed when East Avenue blew the break and the Baffert duo of Citizen Bull and Gaming were allowed to set a moderate tempo. Front end speed won every route race the day of the Tampa Bay Derby. Flavien Prat had him closer to the front end than usual in that spot, but he never looked like a winner in that race either. I think the initial plan was to have him return in the Risen Star, a race which Brown used with both Zandon and Sierra Leone in the recent past. He missed that race, so the Tampa Bay Derby was the next logical race from a timing standpoint. He should be more fit for this race and he should get a better pace scenario. If he’s sitting there as the 4th choice in the wagering (he’s the 4th choice on the morning), I’d be willing to take a chance. 

7 – Admiral Dennis (20-1 ML): He’s the other big longshot in this race and while I’m struggling to make a viable case for Render Judgment, I do think there is a little bit of upside with this Brad Cox colt. He broke his maiden in his second career start while stretching out from a six furlong to a one turn mile at Churchill. He tried the Gun Runner Stakes where he broke poorly and was never able to recover as Built was able to walk on the front end. He ran well to clear the N1X condition in his next start at the Fair Grounds and Authentic Gallop, who was third, validated his effort when winning in his next start at Oaklawn. He tried the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and his bad acting at the gate reared its ugly head again as he spotted the field several lengths in a race where they were cooking up front. He was 24 lengths behind the leader at the first point of call, all but eliminating him from contention that day. He closed well enough to get into 6th place, seven lengths behind Coal Battle. Sandman was third that day and his effort when winning the Arkansas Derby somewhat validates his effort that day. Luis Saez was the rider when he broke his maiden at Churchill and he’ll get back aboard today. He is going to have to improve by at least 15 Beyer points in order to win this race and I’m not sure if he’s there yet. However, he could be a horse to think about using in the bottom of the vertical exotics in this spot, especially if River Thames and East Avenue go too hard in the early stages of this one. 

The Verdict: 3-6-4

I think East Avenue (#5) must be on the lead to have a chance to win this race, but I think that Irad Ortiz is not going to give him a free pass when riding River Thames (#1) on the rail. While I don’t think they’re going to be quarter-horsing like Speed King and Cornucopian were in the Arkansas Derby, I think there’s going to be a strong enough early pace to give some of the closers every chance to make their mark in this one. 

Burnham Square (#3) is the pick in hopes of rebounding from a 4th place effort in the Fountain of Youth. There wasn’t a particularly strong pace that day and his late move was less effective. He was good enough to score in the Holy Bull and I think the rider change will serve him well in this race. Hernandez has no fear about riding the rails and this horse showed in the Holy Bull he can run that kind of race. He continues to get better for Ian Wilkes and I think he earns his spot in the gate at Churchill next month. 

Chancer McPatrick (#6) is worth another chance in this race. While he must prove that he can be as effective at two turns as he’s been at one, you could argue that things weren’t in his favor in either of his last two races. If I’m taking Burnham Square under the precipice that there’s going to be a solid early tempo, I also need to include him for the same reasons. This may be the spot to get this dual Grade 1 winner at a fair price.

I’m not completely convinced that Owen Almighty (#4) is good enough to win a Grade 1 at this distance, but he could get the run of the race if he sits back and lets the other two go for the lead. He had everything his own way at Tampa, and he doesn’t need to win this race to ensure a spot in the gate for the Derby. He’s never finished off the board (except for a race where he was questionably disqualified after crossing the wire first). He feels like more of a backup for me in this race, but if his odds float up, I could be more eager to play him. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.