Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Vlahos (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 8-2-5
A multiple winner over this track and distance, 8-Zio Jo sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (90) for Team O’Neill, exiting a solid second-place finish on Sept. 7. Another forward progression makes the Nyquist gelding the one to beat in a competitive Saturday opener. 2-King Apollo exits back-to-back close runner-up finishes on dirt and turf since moving to two turns for trainer George Papaprodromou and fits well here. 5-Explain This Audit is 0 for 13 on the Santa Anita grass, but it is projected to get a live race flow to close into today, coming off a win on Sept. 1 via disqualification.
Race #2: Selections: 3-2-4
Blinkers off 3-Pop d’Oro goes two sprints to a route today for trainer Ryan Hanson and faces cheaper off a series of subpar efforts. 2-Big Drinker was beaten double digits in the last try at Del Mar but returns to Santa Anita, where he’s run some of his better races and makes the second start off the bench for Miller. His stablemate 4-Legitify (Ire) removes the blinkers this afternoon and stretches out off a series of 1,000-yard evening tries at Los Al. The 3-year-old colt is bred to relish a route of ground.
Race #3: Selections: 3-8-4
Baffert sends out three well-bred and talented juvenile fillies in this year’s G2 Oak Leaf Stakes edition, and any one of the trio could find the winner’s circle. Blinkers on 3-Tenma (a $850k Nyquist purchase) is an undefeated 2 for 2 and now tries two turns for the first time after taking the G1 Del Mar Debutante on Sept. 7. She’s bred to handle the additional real estate. Her stablemate 8-Non Compliant was a solid six-furlong Maiden winner on August 31 with a strong (82) Beyer at Del Mar. This daughter of Tiz the Law is bred to handle two turns successfully, and Hernandez sticks here. Team Baffert’s third filly is the speedy $1.8 million purchase 4-Nooni, who has won two of three career tries and exits a well-beaten fifth behind Tenma in the aforementioned Del Mar Debutante. This pricey gal returned to fire a five-furlong bullet in :59 flat on Sept. 27.
Race #4: Selections: 6-5-1
The recent Maiden winner, 6-Smash It, has run well in all four career tries thus far for trainer Todd Fincher, and he has now switched to turf for his first stakes try. He’s by Star Guitar, who gets a solid 16% with his grass sprint prodigy. The lone filly 5-Dreamaway invades from the East Coast for trainer Wesley Ward, having won both starts. She’s double-entered here and at Keeneland on Sunday. Blinkers on 1-Snowdonia shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon after having no real chance from a tough outside post in the G3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf on Sept. 8 and now makes the third start of the form cycle today for conditioner Dan Blacker. He’s eligible to improve in this spot this afternoon. 8-Tiz Happy wanted no part of two turns in the aforementioned Del Mar Juvenile Turf but is back sprinting and broke his Maiden going five furlongs three-back over this grass course.
Race #5: Selections: 1-8-4
A blowout Maiden win with a lofty (98) Beyer figure and a third behind Pennsylvania and Preakness winner Seize the Grey back in May makes returnee 1-Vlahos the one to beat in this Optional $50k Claiming N1X. He’s trained well for conditioner Doug O’Neill and should appreciate turning back to a sprint. His main rival appears to be Baffert’s 8-Pilot Commander, who has seen his Beyers increase with each subsequent start and comes off a good second when returning from an eight-month layoff. The son of Justify goes second-time Lasix this afternoon. 4-All That Glory exits a sharp third-place try against familiar rivals when returning to dirt on Sept. 7 and has returned with two solid main track drills since that encouraging effort.
Race #6: Selections: 10-8-1
10-Mizzyaan finished a wide closing second in front of several of these when switched to the turf on Sept. 7 by trainer Michael McCarthy and figures to be tough right back while making her third start of the form cycle this afternoon. The 3-year-old filly by Justify was Grade 3 placed in Meydan before arriving stateside. 8-Helga Brandt (Ire) opened up a big lead from her outside post before tiring in the aforementioned Sept. 7 event and finished second two-back over a pair of next-out winners off the seven-month layoff on August 2. A top effort is likely coming third start off the bench today. 1-She’s the Law has good speed to coincide with today’s rail draw and several close finishes at this level while routing on grass.
Race #7: Selections: 3-2-5
The G1 winning 3-Sweet Azteca is 5 for 6 lifetime and has posted triple-digit Beyers in her last three solid victories against some of the country’s top fillies and mares. Another solid win in this spot paves the way for the Breeders’ Cup in four short weeks as one of the likely favorites. 2-Hope Road has won three straight for Baffert, including a recent 5-length runaway victory in the August 31 G3 Torrey Pines Stakes at Del Mar. She proved she can sit and pounce in her most recent win which should serve her well in this spot on the turnback. She’s likely to give Sweet Azteca all she can handle. The rapidly improving 5-One Magic Philly exits a career-best (98) Beyer in a strong N1X win on Sept. 2 going this 6 ½-furlong trip for D’Amato and looks ready to face stakes foes.
Race #8: Selections: 4-3-7
The undefeated 4 for 4 multiple grades stakes winning 4-Iscreamuscream looks like a serious gate-to-wire threat again today, stretching out to 1 ¼-miles for the first time for D’Amato. Blinkers on 3-Be Your Best (Ire) returns to Southern California off two grass route tries at Saratoga for new conditioner Saffie Joseph. She finished second to multiple G1 winner Anisette in the G1 American Oaks over this grass course last December and could get first run on the likely pacesetter. 7-Aspen Grove is a G1 winner routing on turf at a mile and a quarter and had a nice winning prep for this at Saratoga on August 8. A spirited early pace will enhance her chances of closing late, and she will get the services of leading rider Juan Hernandez.
Race #9: Selections: 7-3-5
Blinkers off 7-Getaway Car has won two of three career tries but got cooked through some taxing fractions in the seven-furlong G1 Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 8 and now makes his two-turn debut for Team Baffert. The $700K Keeneland purchase by Curlin has rebounded with a pair of sharp a.m. drills since that last disappointing effort and is likely to bounce back this afternoon on the stretch-out. Hernandez sticks here. His stablemate, 3-Citizen Bull, was a wide trip third in the aforementioned Del Mar Futurity and is another colt bred to prefer two-turns. He’s by the highly-regarded Into Mischief, who gets 19% with route dirt prodigy. The third Baffert colt, 5-Emerald Bay (a $700k Keeneland purchase by Nyquist), is light on Beyer figures but comes off a two-turn Maiden win on August 24 and is capable of upsetting his barnmates as an improving well-bred 3-year-old with a whirlwind of potential ability.
Race #10: Selections: 3-1-4
3-Video Review lost all realistic chance when rank and unsettled in his Sept. 7 debut when facing several of these same rivals. The son of Nyquist switches to top turf pilot Hector Berrios for career start number two, and this barn is solid 7 for 30 (23%) with a $3.53 ROI with second-time turf route runners at Santa Anita the past 5 years. Upset chance. 1-Curvino exits a decent third-place finish while exiting the same race as the top choice and moves from post 8 to the rail this afternoon for trainer Peter Miller. 4-King’s Road is a logical contender in the nightcap for Baffert and Hernandez off a second-place effort in his debut, exiting the same event as the top two choices. However, it is interesting that this barn is 0 for 10 with second-time turf route starters in the past five years. This juvenile might be worth trying to beat at low odds.
