The Way I Drew It Up – Louisiana Derby Late Pick 5 (3/20/2021)

Changing things up a bit as the analysis is a blend of three handicappers: myself, Brad Anderson (2019 BCBC winner) and Matt Miller (the legal eagle). We had a fun hour-long chat building this late pick five ticket, talking TRF (don’t forget to support at, and celebrating Brad’s upcoming birthday! Let’s cash a few tickets…. MAY YOU WIN ALL YOUR PHOTOS

Race 10: The Tom Benson Memorial $100k 8.5f (T)

Fantastic group of competitive horses. We felt it came down to four horses.

  • Best Value/A+: #7 Joy Epifora (15-1) Worst of the trips coming out of the Albert Stall Memorial. That effort was right up there with the rest of them and was off hefty layoff. Running style is variable so could be near the lead and just needs a bit of racing luck to work out the trip
    • Trip Note: 2/13/21 saved all the ground stalking, all down the stretch had nowhere to go bottled on inside, jockey ran horse into other horses, steadied at 1/16, nf effort. bad race luck
  • Most Logical/A+: #3 Dalika (3-1) Looks to be a carbon copy of last race, stalking the pace close and surge past last. Very straight forward.
  • Next Best/A: Temple City Terror (8-1) Had a great kick in the last race and a bit of a trip. Could turn the tables on what was more or less a blanket finish in the last, unlocking some value to kick things off.
  • Consideration/A: #8 Pass the Plate (8-1) Needs a pace to run into and hasn’t gotten that pace in the past two races. Today doesn’t project to be any different. However, I’m interested to see this one on a firm turf course. Maybe finally this one will stop staying out in the parking lot and save some ground, tip out and motor by.
  • Lone Speed/C: #1 His Glory (20-1 but expect price to drop around 8-1 as this is pretty obvious)/A: Without any speed in this race and the upside of this four year, there’s still room left for improvement. Last effort Good stat from DRF Formulator that Joe Sharp and Adam are 21% on turf together with a $2.07 ROI (n=393!!)

Race 11: New Orleans Classic (G2) 9f

Amazing race with plenty of value.

  • Logical/A+: Owendale (9/5) Overall has the best figures on paper, second off the layoff, and might be the speed of this race.
  • Next Best/A+: Sonneman (9/2) Last race was truly impressive. Four year old can continue to improve in what will not be the biggest today this Saturday if you consider Maxfield a notch above this group.
  • Defensive Play/A: Roaders (3-1) Three 6f workouts can either mean a hail marry in hopes of preparing this horse… orrrr… this one is cranked and ready. Stidham has a good habit of getting runners ready off a long layoff (Thanks Maggie Wolfendale for that insight!)
  • Value Play/B: #3 Olliemyboy (12-1) Has had a resurgence since running over the dirt. Today gets the 3rd off the layoff attempt with a Irad aboard. 12-1 feels like a square price. Don’t leave off any exotics underneath!

Race 12: Muniz Memorial Stakes 9f (T)

There is way to much pace drawn outside of Factor This. Insiders report that the turf course might be a bit banged up. We had a theory the drying track will carry speed better, but the divots and “DIRF” like course may prohibit speed from holding. Watch race 4 to see where #5 Fireside Kitten finishes to give clues on how this course will play. If this one crosses the wire first, we may be reconsidering Factor this as an A… maybe.   

  • Logical/A+: #5 Colonel Liam (3-1 but expect evens) Lightly raced million dollar purchase keeps getting better. The pace and draw set up perfectly for this one to stalk and save ground. Single and move on. The only problem the group had was this one has had pretty light class except in the last. Value line is 3-1.
  • Next Best/A+: #4 Cross Border (4-1) Is the class of the race and can turn the tables easily. Last out had 2 or 3 jumps as the tipped for home that were blocked; whereas, at the same time Colonel Liam was sent down for the drive. In today’s event, Cross Border with better racing luck could easily upset the favorite.
  • Lone Speed/B: #Factor This (4-1) best speed here, did all the dirty work in the last race to set things up perfectly.

Race 13: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) 8.5f

Straight forward race

  • Most Logical/A+: #8 Travel Column (5/2) Best speed, strong works, should continue to improve, obvious
  • Next Best/A: #4 Li’l Tootsie (4-1) Had two trips that were impressive and could continue to progress. Amoss likes to be patient with his horses and Saez aboard (typically rides aggressive and forwardly placed), should be good for this one.
  • Longshot/A: #3 Souper Sensational (15-1) Terrible trips in last two efforts. Form is very unexposed and this one could upset at a massive price.

Race 14: Louisiana Derby (G2) 9.5f

I can’t get over the fact that Mando won just by getting the first jump on the good horses

  • Most Logical/A+: #4 Proxy (7/2) I can’t get over the last race entering the far turn, dropping back and trying to go around Mando 4-5w. The pace was just starting to heat up and there was no shot. Each and every start this runner continues to improve and have no doubt will take another step today (just look at the work tab)
  • Next Best/B: #5 Hot Rod Charlie (3-1) Has been tested in last two outings and was facing good competition. Two back in the Breeders’ Cup this one got nipped late by the very good Essential Quality.
  • Consideration/B: #7 Midnight Bourbon (5-1) 3rd off the layoff and now or never for the Derby for this runner. Has the right to continue to improve.

Leave a Reply

More from this show