You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. Analysis based on grass races staying on the sod. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS!
Race 1: 7 – 2 – 5
To start the day, I think the ML favorite is going to be tough, the #7 Millard a Maverick (5-2) for Robert Dobbs and Mojica in the irons. While not creative, the first-time turf last out really brought a new side to the plate with this horse coming from off of it and it earned her the best number in the field. If that is what he wants to do, 5th time out could be the charm for this Unified gelding in a race that should set up well for the stalking trip.
Race 2: 3 – 7 – 1
Pick4: 1,2,3,7 / 5 / 3,5,7 / 2,3,4,5,6 – $30
My least favorite race in the early sequence just happens to be the first leg of the early Pick 4 as I have knocks on every single runner in this race. I don’t think there’s enough pace for the 9/5 favorite to get home, so I started looking at speed or stalking runners which lead me to the #3 Codetowin (4-1). My knock on him is that he is 9yo and hasn’t done his best running this year at all, however he is 9/9 in the money at Hawthorne and a return to his familiar stomping grounds and with a good setup might be just what he needs here.
Race 3: 5 – 4 – 3
This race seems very straightforward, the #5 Izzy’s Monster (4/5) seems like a monster in this field from a pace scenario and from a numbers standpoint. She’s 10+ Beyer points higher consistently than anyone else’s top number. If she runs her race barring anything insane, she should be able to win this one convincing again. Underneath however, I like the #4 Think Blue at a price who should be out to the lead by herself and has run well on the lead. Without much pace pressure, she should be able to hang on for a piece.
Race 4: 7 – 5 – 3
In a tough maiden affair lacking early speed, I took the horse that should be tracking the leaders in #7 Safecracker Sue (3-1). Her last two efforts on the grass have been her best to date and with this field not drawing anyone else with better grass efforts, this should be the time for her to get out of the maiden ranks.
Race 5: 3 – 2 – 5
The end of the early Pick4 looks to have another big favorite with a favorable pace scenario, and I am landing there with #3 Go Stormin Girl (2-1). I don’t think she’ll be 2-1 either but given that she looks to be loose on the lead should give her every chance to take these wire-to-wire. If the pace does quicken a little, I think there are many that can win, as evident with this being my most spread race in the Early Pick4.
Race 6: 4 – 8 – 1
In a race where the pace doesn’t look to be too pressing, I believe the top two horses out of the gate should have a favorable chance to run 1-2 in this race. The tracker of those two, #4 Sharp Stick (6-1) for high-percentage trainer Armando Hernandez, has a good shot to win at a good price. Armando seems to have just been figuring this horse out and all of Sharp Stick’s best numbers have come under the training of him. Also, being half to Ace of Clubs who ran 4th in the Zuma Beach at Santa Anita on the grass for Doug O’Neill, this could be the spot to get her at a nice price.
Race 7: 7 – 5 – 2
Pick 4: 2,3,5,7 / 6,7,10 / 1,4 / 1,3,9 – $36
My top pick #7 Danville (4-1) has been a mainstay in this division for a long time in the Chicagoland area, and with good reason too. He is still running very competitive Beyers in the mid-to-high seventies, and if he runs his best with the pace in front of him, he could crack the top spot for the sixth time at Hawthorne in his career.
Race 8: 6 – 7 – 10
In a race filled with horses that have distance and surface question marks, I ended up on #6 Ha Ha Gloria (5-2), making her second start of the layoff for Coty Rosin. She has only 3 career starts as a 5yo. This is usually a reason to stay away from horses, but Ha Ha Gloria seems to have the right numbers and trip in this race, and with a lot of others in which I’m not confident, she should have everything she needs to fire.
Race 9: 1 – 4 – 7
In a maiden race where it doesn’t seem like a lot of these horses like to pass anyone, I am sticking with the horse that looks to get a decent lead off the rip, the #1 Sendemdowntheroad (7-2). Going through the field, there were many that I crossed off instantly, and this one should take them around, especially with the lack of pace pressure in this race compared to his last few. The only of those aforementioned horses that has shown ability to rate is #4 Nap Lover, so be on the lookout for her if the pace quickens up.
Race 10: 3 – 9 – 1
In the last, this finally seems like a race where there will be a blitz for the lead early on by at least two if not three horses. While the morning line favorite #3 Madelyn Belle (5-2) seems to be one of those involved early, I think that last race showed a new side to her that I really liked. Both times she’s raced on the turf in her career, she has shown the ability to rate just off the speed and get first run on a lot of closers. Also, with the only true closer in this race #9 Covenant Lady who I like in 2nd, she looks to have an edge on this field and 5/2 is a good enough price for her to beat these.
