Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Pilot Commander (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 6-5-2
6-Dealers Special had a wide trip when finishing a non-threatening eighth in his most recent try on Jan. 5 for Baltas, but stretches back out this afternoon to 1 1/8-miles where he’s had prior success. The 4-year-old gelding is reunited with winning rider Umberto Rispoli this afternoon and makes his third try off the layoff. 5-El Rey Rey finished a troubled trip better-than-looks sixth at 34-1 when dropped to this level on Dec. 28 and is eligible to improve in his second start off the bench. 2-Bad to the Bones closed well to grab the show spot in the aforementioned Jan. 5 event. He now makes his third start of the form cycle today for Mandella with an improving Beyer pattern. Hernandez climbs aboard.
Race #2: Selections: 6-7-2
6-Stan From Malibu flashed improved speed to finish a game second at this level on Jan. 5 for trainer Carla Gaines and sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (71). The 5-year-old gelding by Standford makes his third start off the layoff today and is dangerous with another potential forward move. 7-Mr. Big Heart returns off a five-month freshening after being claimed for $16k back in August at Del Mar. This gelding has trained well for conditioner Hector Palma and lands in a weak field. 2-Cody Boy goes turf to dirt on the class drop and has run some competitive figures for this level.
Race #3: Selections: 1-2-3
Trainer Bob Baffert has three of the four total entries for today’s G2 Santa Monica Stakes. 1-Richi (Chi) co-tops the field’s best last-out Beyer (97), exiting a solid score in the G3 Las Flores on Jan. 4, her first start since June. The daughter of Practical Joke was a Grade 1 winner in Chile and is eligible to keep improving while making only her third stateside start. 2-Hope Road had her four-race win streak snapped in the G1 LaBrea on Dec. 26 but is certainly capable of bouncing back today. The Quality Road filly has worked four times since her fourth-place defeat, including a “best of 61” four-furlong bullet drill in :46.2 on Jan. 25. 3-Kopion (by Omaha Beach) was a decisive 2 ¾-length 37-1 upset winner of the aforementioned LaBrea for trainer Richard Mandella, her first try in eight months. She is a solid contender in this short field if she avoids a potential regression.
Race #4: Selections: 3-1-2
3-Rodriguez scampered away to an impressive seven-length maiden victory when he stretched out to a mile on Jan. 4 for Team Baffert, earning a field’s best (101) Beyer speed figure. The $485k son of Authentic looks like a strong repeat candidate, making his first of likely many-stakes appearances. His stablemate, 1-Madaket Road, is a pricey son of Quality Road who exits a Maiden win on Dec. 26 over next-out-winning barn mate San Saba. He’s trained well and should relish going two turns. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner 2-Citizen Bull makes his first start of the year off a spirited work tab and looks to continue his dominance as one of the leading contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. The son of Into Mischief has won three of four career tries, including a pair of Grade 1’s. If there’s a start that he might be vulnerable, perhaps it’s this afternoon when returning from nearly a three-month layoff.
Race #5: Selections: 7-4-1
This $50k optional claimer for fillies and mares over the downhill course is a wide-open scramble. It looks like a good spot to try a price play. 7-Miss Roberts (GB) ships in from Woodbine under the care of new trainer Jeff Mullins off a three-month layoff. The 4-year-old filly has trained well over the Santa Anita synthetic track recently and has run some competitive turf figures at Woodbine for this class level. Blinkers on 4-Word Play exits three consecutive third-place finishes for conditioner Simon Callahan and may find today’s shorter downhill layout to her liking. 1-Source is an East Coast invader for trainer Graham Motion, who shortens up to a sprint this afternoon while making his third start of the form cycle. The 4-year-old filly lures Hernandez today for her Southern California unveiling.
Race #6: Selections: 4-3-1
4-Rashmi drops out of the G1 American Oaks into this softer spot today for conditioner Jonathan Thomas. The 4-year-old daughter of Oscar Performance was hardly disgraced in that event when finishing a closing fourth from a difficult outside post. She’s likely to revert to her upfront pressing running style while shortening back up to her preferred one-mile trip where she’s 3 for 5. 3-Sareeha (Ire) gets a stiff class test this afternoon but is super sharp right now for trainer Mark Glatt, having won three of her last four turf route tries. 1-Liguria hasn’t been out since October 2023 but has trained well for her new conditioner, Michael McCarthy. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 4 for 15 (27%) the past four years, with turf runners returning off >180 days.
Race #7: Selections: 5-2-3
Blinkers off 5-Pilot Commander flashed speed and tired to fourth in the seven-furlong G1 Malibu for Baffert on Dec. 26. The pricey 4-year-old colt by Justify has trained extremely well since that effort, including a “best of 107” five-furlong bullet in :59 flat on Jan. 25. He should be very tough in here shortening back up to six panels. The obvious knock is the short price. 2-Slider has hit the board in 6 of 8 career starts for Sadler and could fill out the short two-speed exacta behind Pilot Commander. The hard-hitting 7-year-old gelding 3-Manitowish returns to his favorite venue, Santa Anita, where he’s (5-3-2) from 11 starts. If the top pair hook up and return to the field, he’s a late threat.
Race #8: Selections 2-9-5
2-Air Force Red was scratched last Sunday afternoon when the later grass races were rained off the turf and returns in this spot for trainer Leonard Powell. This Grade 2-winning 7-year-old makes his second start off the bench today and will likely try and bottom out this field with today’s advantageous inside draw. 9-Seal Team (GB) ran the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (99), off his fourth-place effort in the G2 San Gabriel on Dec. 26. The 5-year-old is lightly raced for Mandella and will likely take back and make a big late run on the turnback. Blinkers on 5-Astronomer has run well in his last several turf routes, starting against solid Grade 2 competition for conditioner Simon Callaghan. The gelding shortens back up to his preferred one-mile trip today for a hot barn while making his third start of the form cycle.
Race #9: Selections 4-6-8
4-Berlin Wall should appreciate getting off the fence today after breaking slowly from the rail in his Jan. 1 debut before rallying well to finish third. The son of Practical Joke was well-backed in his first start for trainer Steve Knapp and should be tough today with any normal second-out progression. Blinkers on 6-Letmein has finished second in all three career starts for conditioner Mark Glatt, including the same race the top choice exits from. The gelding’s Beyers have improved with each subsequent start, and he’s a logical threat again this afternoon. The Tim Yakteen-trained 8-Outworker is by Grade 1 winner Outwork, who gets a solid 17% with his 3-year-old & up-debuting prodigy. This jockey-trainer combo teamed up to win with 18-1 firster Proud Starlet last summer.
Race #10: Selections 8-11-2
8-Heart Headed was outrun in his last pair of graded stakes tries but drops into this softer spot in the Saturday nightcap for conditioner George Papaprodromou. He should get plenty of pace to close into with Hernandez back aboard. The lightly raced 11-Call Sign Seven is drawn outside but drops out of the G2 Mathis Mile into this softer spot today for trainer Michael McCarthy and was a Maiden winner from out here two-back. Risploi lands here while seemingly having some other options. 2-Calm Sea hasn’t been seen since being claimed for $80k on August 22 and now returns for a $50,000 tag off the five-month layoff. Nonetheless, this 5-year-old gelding is a three-time winner over this grass course and has previously run some top grass Beyers that match up well here.
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