Welcome to the ITM 2025 Kentucky Derby Contender Tracker! This is your one-stop-shop for all things related to the top horses on the Derby trail. Learn more about the connections, replays, and top speed figures of every horse pointing towards the Kentucky Derby.

Monster Pods available under each contender’s name!

Click on each contender’s name for written analysis on their Derby resume and chances!

Top 10

1 – Journalism

Curlin – Mopotism (by Uncle Mo)
122.5 Derby Points

Separated himself from the rest by overcoming a troubled trip and winning the G1 Santa Anita Derby. Clear favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

• Last Start: 1^st – G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (4/5)
• Trainer: Michael McCarthy
• Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
• Last Three Beyers: 102-108-87

2 – Sovereignty

Into Mischief – Crowned (by Bernardini)
110 Derby Points

Fountain of Youth winner lost little in defeat when 2nd in the Florida Derby. Should improve in returning to the long stretches of Churchill Downs, where he won a G3 last fall.

• Last Start: 2nd – G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park (3/29)
• Trainer: Bill Mott
• Jockey: Junior Alvarado
• Last Three Beyers: 92-95-87

3 – Luxor Cafe

American Pharoah – Mary’s Follies (by More Than Ready)
Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby

The Japanese came desperately close to winning last year’s Kentucky Derby and bring a worthy contender for the 2025 edition.

• Last Start: 1st – Fukuryu at Nakayama (3/29)
• Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
• Jockey: Joao Moreira
• Last Three Beyers: N/A

4 – Sandman

Tapit – Distorted Music (by Distorted Humor)
129 Derby Points

The enigma became the exalted as he took advantage of a wicked early pace to win the Arkansas Derby. Still has some mental kinks to work out before the Kentucky Derby arrives.

• Last Start: 1st – G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn (3/29)
• Trainer: Mark Casse
• Jockey: Jose Ortiz
• Last Three Beyers: 99-89-92

5 – Baeza

McKinzie – Puca (by Big Brown)
37.5 Derby Points

Brother of Mage and Dornoch ran huge in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, just missing to Journalism. Needs some help to get into the Derby field but that isn’t impossible. 

• Last Start: 2nd – G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (4/5)
• Trainer: John Shirreffs
• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Last Three Beyers: 101-93-87

6 – Rodriguez

Authentic – Cayala (by Cherokee Run)
121.25 Derby Points

Wired the field in the G2 Wood Memorial with a comfortable trip. He’s got one way of going – on the lead – and deserves strong consideration in the Derby given most of the major contenders come from off the pace. 

• Last Start: 1st – G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct (4/5)
• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Jockey: Mike Smith
• Last Three Beyers: 101-90-91

7 – Burnham Square

Liam’s Map – Linda (by Scat Daddy)
130 Derby Points

Bounced back from a dull effort in the G2 Fountain of Youth to win the G1 Blue Grass over a competitive field.

• Last Start: 1st – G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (4/8)
• Trainer: Ian Wilkes
• Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
• Last Three Beyers: 96-91-90

8 – Coal Battle

Coal Front – Wolfblade (by Midshipman)
95 Derby Points

The most heartwarming horse on the Derby trail had his three race win streak snapped in the Arkansas Derby, but still ran well in that spot and has a solid Derby resume. 

• Last Start: 3rd – G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn (3/29)
• Trainer: Lonnie Briley
• Jockey: Juan Vargas
• Last Three Beyers: 88-91-84

9 – Tiztastic

Tiz the Law – Keesha (by Tapit)
119 Derby Points

Battle hardened colt won the G2 Louisiana Derby, his first dirt win and graded stakes win.

• Last Start: 1st – G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds (3/22)
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen
• Jockey: Joel Rosario
• Last Three Beyers: 95-81-89

10 – Final Gambit

Not This Time – Pachinko (by Tapit)
100 Derby Points

Won the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks in his first start against winners and first stakes race appearance. Will make his first start on dirt in the Derby.

• • Last Start: 1st – G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park (3/22)
  • Trainer: Brad Cox
  • Jockey: Luan Machado
  • Last Three Beyers: 90-64-66

Rest of the Field

In the Derby Gate

Chunk of Gold

Preservationist – Play for Gold (by Cairo Prince)
75 Derby Points

$2,500 yearling purchase has run two strong races in New Orleans to punch his Derby ticket.

• • Last Start: 2nd – G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds (3/22)
  • Trainer: Ethan West
  • Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
  • Last Three Beyers: 92-92-75

Citizen Bull

Into Mischief – No Joke (by Distorted Humor)
71.25 Derby Points

The Eclipse champion 2-Year-Old had gradually gained respect through the winter, but lost in all in just under two minutes when throttled in the Santa Anita Derby. He was finally put under some pace pressure and put up little fight as a result. Connections say he’s still Derby bound. 

• Last Start: 4th – G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (4/5)
• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Jockey: Martin Garcia
• Last Three Beyers: 87-98-96

Owen Almighty

Speightstown – Tempers Rising (by Bayern)
65 Derby Points

Tampa Bay Derby winner was originally taken out of Derby consideration following Blue Grass loss, then rejoined the field a week later.

• Last Start: 6th – G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (4/8)
• Trainer: Brian Lynch
• Jockey: Javier Castellano
• Last Three Beyers: 90-93-83

East Avenue

Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music (by Ghostzapper)
60 Derby Points

Grade 1 winning 2-year-old was brought back to life in the G1 Blue Grass, losing by only a nose. Injects some speed into a Derby that lacked a lot of early pace on paper.

• Last Start: 2nd – G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (4/8)
• Trainer: Brendan Walsh
• Jockey: Manny Franco
• Last Three Beyers: 96-74-75

Publisher

American Pharoah – Indian Pride (by Proud Citizen)
60 Derby Points

Set to become the fourth maiden this century, and 13th in history, to compete in the Kentucky Derby. Has been an impressive also ran in three straight Derby preps. 

• • Last Start: 2nd – G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn (3/29)
  • Trainer: Steve Asmussen
  • Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
  • Last Three Beyers: 95-86-81

American Promise

Justify – Tapella (by Tapit)
55 Derby Points

Virginia Derby winner skipped an intended start in the G3 Lexington S. to train up to the Derby off a 7 week layoff.

• • Last Start: 1st – Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs (3/15)
  • Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
  • Jockey: Nik Juarez
  • Last Three Beyers: 95-88-82

Flying Mohawk

Karakontie – Bonbons Fleur (by Twirling Candy)
50 Derby Points

Bold 2nd in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks gives him enough points to make the Derby. Would be the second year in a row that upstart owner and former MLB star, Jayson Werth (Dornoch, 11th in 2024), and rising star trainer, Whit Beckman (Honor Marie, 8th), made the Derby.

• • Last Start: 2nd – G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park (3/22)
  • Trainer: Whit Beckman
  • Jockey: Joe Ramos
  • Last Three Beyers: 84-82-79

Grande

Curlin – Journey Home (by War Front)
50 Derby Points

Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole breathed a sigh of relief on April 5th when this horse secured them a runner in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Overcame a rough, wide trip to grind out a 2nd to Rodriguez that day, earning a big figure in just his 3rd career start.

• • Last Start: 2nd – G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct (4/5)
  • Trainer: Todd Pletcher
  • Jockey: John Velazquez
  • Last Three Beyers: 97-87-83

Admire Daytona

Drefong – Ice Pastel (by Shackleford)
Europe/Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby

Earned his way to Louisville with a win in the G2 UAE Derby. He flattered the form of Luxor Cafe well in that spot having bounced back from a 4th place finish to him two starts ago.

• • Last Start: 1st – G2 UAE Derby at Meydan (4/5)
  • Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
  • Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
  • Last Three Beyers: N/A

Neoequos

Neolithic – Bold Birdie (by Birdstone)
40 Derby Points

Florida-bred has run two good 3rds in the final preps at Gulfstream Park. 

• • Last Start: 3rd – G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park (3/29)
  • Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
  • Jockey: Flavien Prat
  • Last Three Beyers: 89-91-82

Render Judgment

Blame – Barbara Gordon (by Commissioner)
39 Derby Points

5th in the G1 Blue Grass last out, only beaten 4 lengths and put up a career high Beyer. Has run in five straight Derby preps and his best finish was a 2nd in the Virginia Derby. 

• Last Start: 5th – G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (4/8)
• Trainer: Kenny McPeek
• Jockey: Julien Leparoux
• Last Three Beyers: 89-91-82

Off the Trail

Organized Chronologically

Tappan Street (Brad Cox) – Florida Derby winner was injured in his workout the morning of Kentucky Derby entry day and had to be pulled from consideration. 

Built (Wayne Catalano) – Connections opted for the G2 Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard as they believe the distance is better for the horse.

Madaket Road (Bob Baffert) – Had enough Derby points to run in the big race, but instead runs in the G2 Pat Day Mile on the undercard.  

River Thames (Todd Pletcher) – Following loss in the G1 Blue Grass S. will bypass the Derby and point to the Preakness. 

Flood Zone (Brad Cox) – G3 Gotham S. winner was well beaten in the G2 UAE Derby and pulled from Derby contention after returning to the US. 

Heart of Honor (Jamie Osborne) – British based horse had a great winter in Dubai – topped by a narrow loss in the G2 UAE Derby – but will pass on the Derby. Could still start in the Preakness or Belmont.

Owen Almighty (Brian Lynch) – G3 Tampa Bay Derby winner will shorten up in distance after a loss in the G1 Blue Grass.

Barnes (Bob Baffert) – The one time leader of our ITM Derby Top 10 hasn’t been the same horse since his 2nd to Journalism in the San Felipe. 

Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow Jr.) – Ran 4th in the Wood Memorial despite getting the perfect trip and is unlikely to point to the Derby even if he had enough points to run. 

Cornucopian (Bob Baffert) – Beaten Arkansas Derby favorite ran a massive race in only his second start but didn’t earn enough points to make the Derby. 

Speed King (Ron Moquett) – G3 Southwest S. winner was unable to replicate that effort in his next two prep starts at Oaklawn, finishing well up the track in both the G2 Rebel S. and G1 Arkansas Derby. 

Madaket Road (Bob Baffert) – G2 Rebel S. runner-up enforced the pace in the G1 Florida Derby but couldn’t finish higher than 4th. 

Disruptor (Todd Pletcher) – Well backed in the G1 Florida Derby off a big maiden win, his day was done at Gulfstream after a poor start and could only manage 5th.

Maximum Promise (Kenny McPeek) – Ran credibly in three Derby preps, including a 3rd in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, however it wasn’t enough t0 immediately secure a Derby slot. He is now focusing on the turf with an aim at the Epsom Derby!

Gaming (Bob Baffert) – One of the bigger disappointments of the Derby trail this season. A G1 winner in 2024 who ran 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he since has been well beaten in the G2 Los Al Futurity and G3 Southwest S. at Oaklawn. He was an intended runner in the Virginia Derby but a minor issue caused him to reroute.

Built (Wayne Catalano) – Gun Runner Stakes winner had a consistent prep season in Louisiana up until a 5th in the Louisiana Derby. Has 45 Derby points but unlikely to progress towards the big race.

Caldera (D. Wayne Lukas) – Sunland Derby runner-up was a non-factor in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Surfside Moon (Chuck Lawrence) – Ran a tremendous runner-up effort in the Wither S. in February but a slight setback forces him to miss the G2 Wood Memorial. Now points to preps for the Preakness or Belmont.

Getaway Car (Bob Baffert) – Sunland Derby winner does have 46 points on the Derby trail – enough to make the big race – but is unlikely to go after disappointing in the Virginia Derby.

Rapture (Brad Cox) – Went off a well bet second choice in the Virginia Derby but never threatened in that spot. 

Golden Vekoma (Ahmad bin Harmash) – Top Middle Eastern sophomore was scheduled to run in the G2 UAE Derby but a physical issue will put him away until next winter. 

Patch Adams (Brad Cox) – An initial member of the ITM Derby Top 10, Patch has disappointed in his last two starts despite being bet well in both spots. Unlikely to pursue further preps following those losses.

Disco Time (Brad Cox) – Impressive, unbeaten winner of the G3 Lecomte S. has been taken off the trail for unreported reasons.

Ferocious (Gustavo Delgado) – One of the most promising juveniles of 2024 will miss the rest of the Derby trail with an injury.

First Resort (Eoin Harty) – The winner of last fall’s G2 Kentucky Jockey Club S. will miss the rest of the Derby trail with a hind leg injury. 

Romanesque (Bob Baffert) – Solid runner-up from the G3 San Vicente – only behind Citizen Bull and ahead of Barnes – has not worked since early March.

Cyclone State (Chad Summers) – The Jerome Stakes winner was sent off favored in the G3 Saudi Derby but was never involved there and finished last.

Magnitude (Steve Asmussen) – An unbelievable win in the G2 Risen Star S. that resulted in a 108 Beyer will be Magnitude’s last race for a while. He came out of that effort with a bone chip. 

Jonathan’s Way (Phil Bauer) – Graded stakes winning juvenile hasn’t worked since an injury forced him to scratch from the G2 Risen Star.

One Man Team (Brittany Russell) – Leading juvenile from Maryland was training towards an intended start in the Miracle Wood S. at Laurel on 2/22, but has now missed a few intended works and is MIA at this point. 

Kale’s Angel (Peter Miller) – Won two stakes sprinting at Oaklawn this winter with a placing in the Smarty Jones S. sandwiched between them. Connections have opted to focus on sprint races for now. 

Burning Glory (Bill Mott) – Hasn’t worked since running a solid 4th in the G3 Holy Bull.

Rated by Merit (Michael Yates) – The fastest 2 year old of 2024 by Beyer standards is off the Derby trail due to bone bruising.

Gunmetal (Brad Cox) – One of many impressive maiden breakers from the super stable of Cox. Failed to fire in the Swale S. most recently and hard to say he’ll pursue the Derby trail. 

Treaty of Rome (Chad Brown) – Ran a good 2nd in the Mucho Macho Man S. but then was never involved and distanced in the Sam F. Davis S.. Not likely to take another shot on the Derby trail knowing how Chad Brown operates.

Tux (Bill Mott) – Only beaten 3 lengths in the G2 Remsen S. last fall behind Poster but then was well beaten by River Thames and co. in allowance company at Gulfstream. Not a glowing endorsement for the Remsen. 

Uncle Hulka (Chad Brown) – A solid maiden winner at Aqueduct was pointing to the Withers S. but an injury has put him on the shelf for the time being. 

Aviator Gui (Chad Brown) – The runner-up in the G2 Remsen S. missed a few weeks of workouts in late Jan./early Feb. and is not going to progress on the Derby trail.

Tip Top Thomas (Todd Pletcher) – The G1 Champagne S. runner-up is back on the work tab but Todd Pletcher has suggested they’ll focus on one turn races for now. 

Crazy Frazy (Jorge Delgado) – A winner of multiple minor stakes as a 2 year old, this colt has been off the worktab since December.