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Welcome to Illinois Derby Day! Today’s racing will be excellent, and the pool sizes should be enhanced as the Illinois Derby Contest ($800 buy-in) will infuse money into the tote and create equity throughout the card. Good luck to those who are playing.
Race 1: 7 – 6 – 3
In the opener, a race for maidens going two turns, I’ll start the card with the outside horse, #7 Sharpenyoufaith (5-2) for the deadly combination of Rivelli and Loveberry. The Sharp Azteca gelding lost to two of his competitors today last time, but had to battle the entire way and tired. With less speed signed on and an aggressive ride from Loveberry, I except this one to get the job done on a clear lead. We’ll also get a gauge on how the track might play today after Race 1, so pay attention carefully.
Race 2: 4 – 1 – 5
Pick 4 Ticket: 1,3,4,5 / 4 / 2,3,6 / 2,3,5 ($18)
#1 Aldora will be a heavy favorite in this spot, but I thought there was enough early speed to cause him some trouble. I’m going to take a swing with #4 Flathead Finale (9-2), who puts blinks on should be closing into a fast pace. He’s also worked well over the surface and perhaps the new scenery and turnback in distance will wake him up.
Race 3: 4 – 3 – 2
#4 Went West (8-5) is classy, tactical and in good form. If you toss out the slop effort last time (stake race), he’s been very competitive and should be tough in this spot. There’s enough early speed to set up his mid-pack style and Loveberry takes over…intent shown here.
Race 4: 2 – 3 – 6
I like when horses show the ability to change their styles. That characteristic fits #2 Joe the Tailor (5-2) to a tee. In his 3yo debut, he rated kindly in behind the speed and was able to pass the leaders in the lane. You would assume more improvement for this lightly-raced son of Speighster. His works are nothing to shout about, but at least they’ve been relatively steady.
Race 5: 2 – 3 – 5
This race is interesting on many levels….the main question is how much pace pressure will the bookend horses (rail and outside) place on the favorite and my top selection, #2 Gun Rush (8-5)? He’s been awesome at Hawthorne, with 5 races in 6 starts and one 2nd. He also gets back to dirt, which appears to be his more-preferred surface. If the race does collapse a bit, perhaps the #3 Cousinvinnysacanuck could pick up the pieces late and surprise.
Race 6: 8 – 7 – 9
Pick 4 Ticket: 7,8,9 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,3 / 1,3,4,5 ($48)
The last time #8 Time Heist (5-2) hit the track, he was super-impressive in victory. The running line doesn’t even tell the whole story. Giles rode with the utmost confidence, didn’t even ask the horse until the far turn, and blew by the competition with ease despite being on the wrong lead most of the stretch. A repeat of that effort will make him tough here.
Race 7: 6 – 1 – 2
I believe this race has a chance to fall apart. If it does, there are two logical choices, the #2 and #6. I’ll go with the horse that I believe will be the higher price of the two, #6 Silent Sunday (9-2). He has races on the dirt back in California that would be competitive here, and his synthetic starts have been on par with most of this field. The heavy favorite, Richiesonaroll, will take a ton of money. But he’s hard to trust if he doesn’t have the lead, and there’s no guarantee that will happen with the presence of the #3. This is a very important race for the Illinois Derby Contest…if the #1 loses, the leaderboard will change dramatically in my opinion.
Race 8 (Illinois Derby): 1 – 3 – 4
Welcome back, Illinois Derby!! The $200k 9-furlong race for 3yo’s brings together a small but competitive field. The winner will get an automatic bid to the Preakness Stakes, the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown. There is enough early speed in this race to set up for a mid-pack / closing-type runner, and therefore I’ll go with the #1 Real Men Violin (3-1) for jockey Reylu Guiterrez and trainer Ken McPeek. At his best, I feel he is the most talented horse, although he has not shown that speed in his last two races. It should be mentioned that the jock just wrapped up on him in mid-stretch in the Louisiana Derby, so the losing margin was exaggerated. That being said, it wasn’t a good effort. However, since that race, he’s recorded two solid works and Reylu was on him in that last work. If he runs back to any of his races at the end of 2023, I believe he’ll beat this field. #3 Raguel for Brendan Walsh should improve with some time off and blinkers on, and #4 Woodcourt has run two competitive races back-to-back. This is a fun rendition of the Illinois Derby.
Race 9: 5 – 1 – 4
#5 Gimme the Candy (3-1) will try and wire the field again today to close out the card. He’s very quick and will be gunning for the lead for sure. There is other speed in here, so Gimme will have to be at his best. In addition, he has to stretch out to 6f, so he’s no sure thing. However, many horses in here do not like to pass others, so maybe the speed of the speed will prevail.
