PTF teamed up with the Breeders’ Cup for a Halloween edition of picks and best bets, shot in downtown Lexington on the night of the city’s Thriller Halloween parade. PTF and Andrew Brown each give a banker, a favorite to take on and a longshot for both days of the 2026 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland. Here’s who they landed on, with each horse’s morning line from the draw and a link to that race’s Narrative Past Performances page.
Future Stars Friday
Bankers
Hughes, Juvenile (even money). Brown’s lock for Friday. Bob Baffert’s colt is 4-for-4, and Brown saw him in person twice at Del Mar this summer and likes that he has been training in Kentucky in the lead-up.
Amusingly, Juvenile Fillies Turf (7/2). PTF’s banker comes at a price. Most bettors will be on Sun Goddess (6/5), but PTF thinks Francis-Henri Graffard’s filly could be better suited to American-style racing.
Favorites to take on
Libertango, Juvenile Turf Sprint (5/2). Brown respects the Royal Ascot winner but is against her here: she goes around a turn for the first time and cuts back to 5½ furlongs, with plenty of speed drawn around her.
Great Barrier Reef, Juvenile Turf (4/1). PTF leans slightly against him. He thinks several runners make sense, How’s Al Today among them, and Folsom Blues (7/2) is probably his top pick.
Longshots
Manuka Honey, Juvenile Fillies (10/1). Brown’s Friday shocker is Brian Lynch’s unbeaten Pocahontas winner. She won over a mile at Churchill Downs, and Brown thinks she will relish every inch of the mile and a sixteenth.
Mussab, Juvenile Turf Sprint (15/1). PTF admits his form isn’t as flashy as some in the field, but on speed figures and suitability to American conditions, he thinks the price is very good.
Championship Saturday
Bankers
Nitrogen, Distaff (6/5). Brown loves betting a mare in form and cannot see her getting beaten.
Blue Bolt, Filly & Mare Turf (5/2). PTF’s Saturday banker. She hasn’t raced beyond a mile at home, but he thinks the mile and three-sixteenths around two turns will suit her perfectly, and you can argue she has the best form in the race.
Favorites to take on
Englishman, Sprint (4/5). Brown sends Cherie DeVaux’s talented colt to the favorites’ graveyard. His reasons: Englishman faces older horses for the first time, and 3-year-old favorites have a poor record at the Breeders’ Cup.
Bacio, Turf Sprint (5/2). PTF calls Wesley Ward’s sprinter the most likely winner but takes a shot against him. Comanche Brave (3/1) has comparable figures, and PTF expects the market to go crazy for Bacio.
Longshots
American Stage, Sprint (30/1). An each-way play from Brown: Yoshito Yahagi’s sprinter was fourth in this race last year, is quick from the gate and comes off a runner-up finish in the Korea Sprint.
T O Password, Classic (30/1). PTF also goes Japanese. T O Password has run well on these shores before, and PTF thinks he can outrun his odds.
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Join ITM Plus →Plus: “Who we betting?”
PTF and Andrew Brown took the question around Keeneland for a rapid-fire follow-up on the Breeders’ Cup channel. One answer will sound familiar: NBC’s Randy Moss is on Harper’s Corner in the Juvenile Turf Sprint again. For his full best bets with Jerry Bailey, read Breeders’ Cup 2026 Best Bets from NBC’s Randy Moss & Jerry Bailey.
Every race, every runner: the full field stories, the ITM Staff pick and the history for all 14 races are on the ITM Breeders’ Cup hub.
